Toronto’s mayoral race between incumbent Olivia Chow and challenger Brad Bradford reached a decisive moment on Monday as voters headed to the polls in a closely contested municipal election. Recent polls indicated the race could go either way, highlighting the importance of voter turnout, particularly in downtown areas where support for Chow has traditionally been stronger.
Chow, 69, who assumed office three years ago following a by-election triggered by John Tory’s resignation, is poised to become the first incumbent Toronto mayor to be unseated since the city’s amalgamation in 1998 if Bradford prevails. A long-time New Democratic Party (NDP) figure and widow of former party leader Jack Layton, Chow has faced significant challenges during her term, including addressing a $1.8-billion budget deficit linked partly to the COVID-19 pandemic’s aftermath.
Her administration implemented two substantial property-tax increases despite initial promises of modest hikes, and she secured a landmark financial arrangement with Ontario Premier Doug Ford. This agreement provided $1.2 billion in operating funding over three years and transferred control of the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway to the provincial government—measures that contributed to the city’s credit-rating upgrade to AA-plus by S&P Global Ratings.
Chow’s campaign has emphasized ride fare reductions for frequent transit users, free school lunches, and property tax increases limited to inflation rates. However, she has faced criticism for tempering her opposition to controversial provincial plans involving Toronto’s waterfront Ontario Place site and for ongoing concerns related to homelessness and public safety in the city.
Her opponent, 40-year-old Bradford, has pursued a more conservative platform appealing to suburban and conservative voters despite his background in urban planning and previous support for bike lanes. First elected to city council in 2018 and initially receiving only 1.28 percent of the mayoral vote three years ago, Bradford has urged a departure from what he describes as Toronto’s “stuck” status quo under Chow.
Bradford has committed to freezing property taxes, conducting a comprehensive spending review, eliminating the land-transfer tax on homes valued under $1.1 million, and adding 1,000 police officers amid public concerns over disorder, despite generally low crime rates. He has attracted attention for his strong law-and-order stance, including posing openly with a softball bat used for home protection.
During the campaign, the candidates clashed over fiscal management, with Chow warning Bradford’s proposals could result in cuts to libraries and increased transit fares—claims Bradford denies. He counters that his tax freeze would maintain the city’s 1.5 percent building levy and argues his plan to create a publicly owned water services entity would reduce water bills by 25 percent by enabling financing through debt rather than rate hikes. Chow and allies, including environmentalist David Suzuki and former Mayor David Miller, have accused Bradford of moving toward water services privatization, a charge he refutes as misinformation.
Beyond local issues, the influence of Ontario Premier Doug Ford has loomed over the campaign. Ford, who previously criticized Chow, has softened his tone but publicly distanced himself from endorsing any candidate. His government has controversially removed city bike lanes and attempted to allow passenger jets at the waterfront island airport, actions that have sparked debate over governance and local autonomy. Bradford has expressed support for the bike lane removals and accused Chow of failing to effectively oppose the Premier’s agenda.
As Toronto’s election results await tabulation, the outcome will signal the direction of the city’s management amid complex fiscal and social challenges, while also setting a precedent for incumbent mayors in Canada’s largest municipality.