ADI Predictstreet, a newly launched prediction market platform and official partner of FIFA for the 2026 World Cup, has come under scrutiny following an analysis that suggests most of its trading activity is artificially generated. The platform, which has paid over $150 million to FIFA for exclusive advertising rights during World Cup broadcasts, showed trading patterns consistent with circular or self-trading among a network of linked cryptocurrency wallets.
According to a public blockchain data review conducted by three Harvard University students—Joshua Gupta, William Thompson, and Ashwin Vinod Kumar—a substantial portion of ADI Predictstreet’s transaction volume appears to originate from wallets controlled by the company itself. Of approximately $167 million traded on the platform through late September, more than $108 million was linked to a group of around 795 wallets that traded almost exclusively with one another. These wallets were funded by a single cryptocurrency account that collects the platform’s trading fees, indicating a recycling of fees back into the market.
The circular trading activity is believed to have started in early July, coinciding with the beginning of the World Cup, when two wallets reportedly exchanged more than $81 million in trades over numerous markets, sometimes representing over 90% of daily volume. Following the tournament, the platform’s overall trading activity declined significantly.
ADI Predictstreet was launched in April under a conglomerate connected to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, deputy ruler and national security adviser of Abu Dhabi, who leads the investment firm International Holding Co. The company holds exclusive FIFA advertising rights for the World Cup, a high-profile endorsement for the prediction market’s first major sporting event season.
The platform recently featured betting markets on U.S. political contests, including one on the race for Bexar County judge in Texas between Democrat Ron Nirenberg and Republican Patrick Von Dohlen. This market saw wagers exceeding $650,000, predominantly from the linked wallets, with trades occurring over a roughly ten-day period in September. Both candidates expressed concerns about the presence of such markets and potential foreign influence on U.S. elections, with Nirenberg calling prediction markets "not helpful to our democracy."
Comparatively, the trading volume on other prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi for the same election was below $55,000, underscoring the unusual concentration of activity on ADI Predictstreet.
ADI Predictstreet operates under a gambling license from Gibraltar, where the gambling commissioner, Andrew Lyman, stated that a preliminary regulatory review found the platform complies with local rules prohibiting self-trading. He further noted that no consumer harm had been identified. Following media inquiries, the ADI Foundation—another entity linked to the company—signed a memorandum of understanding with Gibraltar’s authorities aimed at promoting cryptocurrencies.
Public filings list ADI Predictstreet as a subsidiary of International Holding Co., chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon. However, a company spokesperson disputed this characterization, clarifying that ADI Predictstreet is not part of IHC’s corporate structure.
The ADI Foundation has actively pursued partnerships with major financial firms, including Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Bank of New York Mellon, in efforts to expand the adoption of the underlying cryptocurrency blockchain technology.
Requests for comment from ADI Predictstreet and FIFA were not answered. Industry experts and crypto market analysts who reviewed the data characterized the trading patterns as atypical and likely non-organic, raising questions about the true liquidity and fairness of the platform’s markets during its critical launch phase.