Authorities in Toyama, a city in western Japan, are investigating allegations that local officials manipulated census data to inflate the population count. The investigation followed a raid of Toyama city hall by regional police on Saturday, after Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications identified discrepancies in the population figures during a recent census review.

The ministry filed a formal complaint accusing city officials of including unoccupied households in the population tally, which may have been an effort to obscure demographic decline. A ministry official, Kenta Tsuji, confirmed the discovery of irregularities during the final stages of verifying census results but did not provide specific details on how the inconsistencies were uncovered. According to the ministry, the final census showed a population approximately 3,000 higher than an earlier estimate released in May.

Toyama, the capital and largest city of Toyama Prefecture, lies near the Japanese Alps and has roughly 400,000 residents. The city is recognized internationally as a “compact city” model for limiting urban sprawl and reducing reliance on automobiles. Japan conducts its national census every five years, and the most recent results revealed that Toyama’s population fell below 400,000, a milestone that Mayor Hirohisa Fujii had previously expressed concern about.

In public comments last May, Fujii called the 400,000 mark a significant threshold and described efforts to slow population decline as an urgent priority. He highlighted the broader challenges facing the city, including declining birth rates and the associated impact on local services such as schools.

Population figures carry considerable financial implications for local governments in Japan, since central government subsidies are generally allocated based on population size. Toyama stands to see its subsidies reduced by approximately $380,000 due to the population drop and a decrease in the number of schoolchildren, according to Fujii.

Experts assessing the situation suggested that pressure to maintain population levels may have motivated the alleged data manipulation. Nobuo Sasaki, an emeritus professor of economics at Chuo University, suggested that city officials may have sought to preserve Toyama's standing relative to nearby urban centers such as Kanazawa and Niigata, which have larger populations and attract more tourism. Sasaki also posited that officials might have acted to protect the city’s reputation as a model of successful urban development.

Mayor Fujii has pledged full cooperation with the police investigation. Under Japanese law, falsifying official statistics can result in fines or imprisonment of up to six months. The ongoing inquiry will aim to clarify the extent of any data manipulation and hold accountable those involved.