Global coffee production faces increasing risks from climate change, threatening the supply of the beverage consumed in approximately two billion cups daily worldwide. Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and climate-related diseases are putting significant pressure on coffee plantations, with experts warning that an anticipated El Niño event later this year could exacerbate these challenges.
Nearly all coffee production relies on two primary species: Coffea arabica and Coffea robusta. Arabica, prized for its delicate flavor, is particularly vulnerable to temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius and is increasingly cultivated at higher altitudes to mitigate heat stress. However, the availability of suitable highland terrain is limited. Robusta is more tolerant of heat but requires substantial water, making it susceptible to drought conditions that are becoming more frequent and severe.
Price fluctuations have reflected these production threats, with arabica and robusta coffee bean prices nearly doubling between 2023 and 2025. This surge underscores the broader instability facing the global coffee market amid environmental pressures.
Research efforts are underway to identify and develop coffee varieties better adapted to changing climate conditions. Scientists at Kew Gardens have investigated over 130 wild coffee species in search of resilient candidates. Among the promising finds is Coffea liberica, native to Malaysia, which tolerates higher temperatures and lower water availability than arabica. Additionally, hybrids of liberica crossed with Coffea excelsa exhibit robustness alongside flavor profiles similar to arabica, potentially offering an alternative for growers confronting harsher climates.
The top five coffee-producing countries—Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia—are grappling with extreme weather events that are disrupting harvests and increasing crop vulnerability. Brazil encounters intensifying droughts and heat waves, alongside episodic frost events like the one that devastated arabica crops five years ago. Vietnam experienced its worst drought in decades in 2024, compounded by typhoons late last year, both of which have adversely affected coffee production.
Other environmental threats, such as flooding and wildfires, further complicate the outlook for coffee growers. These compounding factors have raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of global coffee supplies, urging industry stakeholders to explore adaptive strategies and support for climate-resilient cultivation methods.