In the wake of recent intense overnight rainfall, parts of Lagos experienced severe flooding that disrupted daily life and damaged property in Nigeria’s commercial capital. Samuel Akpan, a pastor at the Apostolic Church of Nigeria in the Lekki district, spent much of the following day clearing water from his flooded parsonage. Lekki, an upscale and rapidly developing area within the sprawling city of approximately 20 million residents, was among the hardest hit.

Lagos’s geographic location on a low-lying coastline exposes it to flooding risks. Experts point to a combination of rising sea levels driven by climate change, irregular rainfall patterns, and unregulated groundwater extraction as key contributors to the increasing flood events. Many households lack access to municipal treated water, prompting widespread drilling of boreholes that disrupt the ground’s natural balance. According to the World Economic Forum, Lagos is sinking by as much as 87 millimeters annually, exacerbating the flooding threat.

The city’s rapid population growth—estimated at 6 percent per year by the United Nations—compounds these issues. Thousands of people migrate daily to Lagos in search of economic opportunities, fueling rapid urbanization and construction of residential, commercial, and industrial developments, particularly in Lekki. The district is also home to a designated free trade zone and plans for a new international airport, accelerating land reclamation and infrastructure expansion.

Heavy rainfall typically occurs between May and November in Nigeria, often causing deadly floods. Last year, rainfall exceeded its ten-year average, and projections for this year suggest even greater variability, with some areas expecting up to 3,030 millimeters. Residents like Uche Adibua in Lagos’s Okota district described the floodwaters as unprecedented and relentless.

Scientific assessments attribute recent severe rainfall events across West Africa—including late June storms responsible for about 100 deaths—to climate change. Lagos State spans 180 kilometers of coastline with extensive waterways, leaving it vulnerable to coastal flooding intensified by increased precipitation. Ibidun Adelekan, a geography professor at the University of Ibadan, noted that the area now experiences more intense rainstorms, while inadequate drainage systems and poor waste management further exacerbate flooding.

Clogged waterways and drainage channels, often choked with plastic waste and debris, hinder water flow and contribute to standing floodwaters. Environmentalists highlight the loss of natural flood buffers such as wetlands, which have been destroyed or built over amid unstructured land reclamation to accommodate rapid urban growth.

Olumide Idowu, an independent environmentalist, cited heavy rainfall combined with insufficient infrastructure and unchecked urban expansion as primary drivers of the annual flooding crisis. Lagos government environmental chief Tokunbo Wahab acknowledged that illegal dredging and land reclamation pose significant environmental challenges, reducing the city’s natural capacity to manage excess water.

In Lekki, some residents have linked worsening flood conditions to the construction of the 700-kilometer Lagos-Calabar coastal highway, a major government infrastructure project connecting Lagos to Calabar near the Cameroon border. Babatunde Vaughn, a technology consultant living near the highway, observed flooding patterns that differed from previous years, attributing the change to the road’s construction.

However, Works Minister Dave Umahi and Hitech, the Nigerian firm responsible for building the highway, rejected claims that the project worsened flooding. Umahi argued the highway serves as a protective buffer against coastal flooding for nearby communities.

Environmental specialists emphasize the need for government action to address flooding through updated building codes, stricter urban planning regulations, and improved drainage infrastructure designed to handle increased rainfall intensity. Without these measures, Lagos’s growing population and evolving climate patterns are likely to exacerbate flood-related hazards in the coming years.