Coalition likely in Muslim south after polls

By the Editorial Team · Wednesday, September 16, 2026

No single faction secured a majority in the recent Bangsamoro Autonomous Region parliamentary elections, with rival Moro Islamic Liberation Front groups led by Abdulraof Macacua and Al Haj Murad Ebrahim emerging as the top contenders. The fragmented vote distribution means coalition talks will be crucial in shaping the region’s political leadership and ensuring continued stability.

Coalition negotiations are expected following the recent elections in the Muslim-majority autonomous region in the southern Philippines, as no single group appears poised to win a majority in the new 80-member parliament. Unofficial results indicate that rival factions originating from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the former separatist organization that negotiated autonomy with the Philippine government, are leading the race but falling short of outright control.

The two main camps are led by longtime MILF chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim and Abdulraof Macacua, a former MILF commander who was appointed interim chief minister by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2025. With nearly all votes counted, the faction associated with Abdulraof Macacua garnered approximately 35.2% of the party-list vote, slightly ahead of Murad Ebrahim’s bloc, which secured around 32.4%. A third group, the BARMM Grand Coalition, captured about 20.5% of the vote, positioning itself as a potential kingmaker in future coalition talks.

According to the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting, a church-affiliated election watchdog reporting partial and unofficial tallies, these results underscore the fragmented nature of the region’s political landscape. Analysts suggest that no faction is likely to claim the 41 seats needed to form a majority government, underlining the importance of coalition-building efforts.

Benedicto Bacani, executive director of the Institute for Autonomy and Governance, a policy research body focused on regional autonomy and governance, emphasized the significance of cooperation between the competing MILF factions. He described the unification of the MILF groups as the most favorable outcome, as it could reinforce peace and political stability in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

The elections, held on September 15, saw a voter turnout of about 80%, with approximately 1.8 million ballots cast from 2.39 million registered voters. Electorate members voted for party-list groups, as well as district and sectoral representatives, all of whom will compose the newly formed regional parliament tasked with governing the autonomous region. The outcome of coalition negotiations will help determine the political direction and leadership as BARMM moves toward its first elected chief minister since gaining autonomy.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.