Vietnam's robusta coffee output for the 2026/27 season is expected to remain largely stable, as increased production from younger replanted trees compensates for earlier weather-related losses across the country’s Central Highlands, industry sources said. Vietnam, the world's largest robusta coffee producer, accounts for approximately 40% of global supplies of this coffee variety commonly used in instant coffee blends.

Despite variations in weather conditions in 2026, with some areas experiencing heavy rainfall and pest infestations, these challenges did not uniformly affect the region. The Central Highlands, Vietnam’s main coffee-growing area, saw weaker yields in parts but stronger output in others. Trinh Duc Minh, chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, stated that overall production for the season would remain similar to the previous year. “Newer trees in some growing areas are producing higher yields and helping offset losses,” he noted.

A coffee trader in Dak Lak province echoed this assessment, citing localized damage due to excessive rain and pest outbreaks but affirming a broadly unchanged output across the Central Highlands.

This outlook is somewhat more conservative than the May forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture, which projected a 2.5% increase in Vietnam’s 2026/27 coffee production, estimating total output at 32.5 million 60-kilogram bags, including a 3% rise in robusta yields to 31.4 million bags.

Looking ahead to the 2027/28 season, producers are growing increasingly concerned about the potential impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which meteorologists warn may be the strongest on record. Japanese meteorologists reported on October 9 that changes in water temperatures associated with El Niño were more significant than any observed since record-keeping began in 1949.

Minh indicated that a severe El Niño could negatively affect coffee output next season due to expected shortages in irrigation water. Farmers in the Central Highlands also expressed apprehension about the coming year. Tran Thi Mai, a coffee grower in Gia Lai province managing a two-hectare plantation, recalled similar conditions a decade ago when El Niño led to declines in both production and market prices. “Water shortages and drought conditions could start affecting irrigation as early as February. Next crop output will very likely be smaller,” she said.

While the full extent of El Niño’s impact remains uncertain, industry participants warn that its severity could challenge Vietnam’s coffee production in the near future.