Maine’s Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a competitive bid for a sixth term in the November 3 election, navigating a challenging political landscape shaped by President Donald Trump’s enduring influence. As the only Republican senator in New England and representing a state that Trump lost in the 2024 presidential race, Collins is contending with significant opposition amid a politically divided electorate.
Maine’s voters have expressed widespread disapproval of Trump’s presidency, with a recent Marist Poll showing only 40% approval compared to 59% disapproval among registered voters. Several state-specific issues contribute to this sentiment, including rising heating oil costs tied to the war in Iran, Canadian tariffs affecting cross-border relations, and a high-profile incident in July where a federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer fatally shot a resident. Collins’ Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, a logger and former state Senate president, has sought to link Collins closely to Trump in his campaign messaging.
Despite these challenges, recent polling indicates a tight race. While a Marist Poll places Jackson ahead by 4 percentage points, a New York Times/Siena University poll from late September shows Collins leading by 3 points. Aggregated polling averages from Real Clear Politics suggest Collins trails Jackson by about 1.4 points, a narrower margin than Republicans face in similar states won by Trump such as North Carolina and Ohio.
Collins, 73, has previously overcome poll deficits, including in her 2020 reelection when she won by roughly 9 points despite Maine favoring Joe Biden by a similar margin. Analysts attribute some of Collins’ resilience to her reputation for delivering federal funding to Maine, chiefly as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. This perceived ability to secure resources has appealed to independent and moderate voters who fear losing her influence could harm the state’s financial interests.
Maine’s political landscape is notable for its independent streak, reflected in the state’s other senator, Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats and served as governor for eight years. Collins herself has cultivated a bipartisan image, often supporting abortion rights and backing gun reform legislation. Alongside former Senator Olympia Snowe, she was known as a moderate Republican, occasionally breaking with her party on key votes, such as supporting the 2009 economic stimulus package.
Yet, the political environment has become increasingly polarized during the Trump era, complicating Collins’ efforts to maintain broad appeal. Some critics argue that her voting record aligns too closely with Trump. According to analyses by CQ Roll Call and The New York Times, Collins voted with the president over 90% of the time during his second term, and her opposition votes rarely prevented the passage of Trump’s agenda. Jackson has highlighted this record, accusing her of enabling Trump’s policies.
Collins has sought to emphasize her bipartisan credentials during the campaign, including campaigning alongside former Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, now an independent, in late October. She insists that centrists are needed in the Senate to bridge partisan divides and cites her attempts to oppose controversial appointments, such as her efforts against the confirmation of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of War.
The Democratic challenge remains energized, underscored by protests targeting Collins’ vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the subsequent overturning of Roe v. Wade. Voters like Bob Rotolo, a longtime independent who previously supported Collins, say they are now shifting away due to her perceived alignment with Trump’s agenda.
With Maine’s electorate reflecting a mix of party affiliations and political independents, Collins’ ability to balance her moderate brand with her association to a divisive former president will be critical as election day approaches.