Efforts to form Israel’s next government face a complex and uncertain pathway following recent elections that delivered a fragmented parliament and no clear majority. The political landscape is shaped by competing efforts between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, with neither side able to secure the 61 seats required to establish a stable coalition.
Netanyahu’s right-wing alliance, including parties such as Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Religious Zionist Party-Zehut, collectively hold 53 seats—eight short of a majority. Opposition factions remain united in their refusal to join a government led by Netanyahu, and their inability to attract additional partners complicates prospects for coalition formation. Yisrael Beytenu, with seven seats, has explicitly ruled out serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotating premiership arrangement, reflecting ongoing tensions within the right-wing camp.
On the opposition side, Eisenkot’s newly established Yashar party secured 21 seats, positioning him as a leading contender to replace Netanyahu. However, forming a government without Netanyahu also presents challenges. The opposition bloc currently holds 48 seats, insufficient for a majority. Key figures such as Yair Lapid and Avigdor Liberman have expressed reservations about including Arab parties Ra’am and the Joint List in coalition calculations. While Mansour Abbas of Ra’am has previously participated in a coalition government, the Joint List’s divergent views on security and diplomatic issues make alliance with them politically precarious.
Internal disagreements among opposition leaders further hinder government formation. Liberman and Bennett, in particular, have criticized proposals for a minority government supported by Arab parties, blaming such discussions for shifting votes back to Netanyahu’s camp. This dynamic has deepened divisions over strategy and the terms for cooperation.
President Isaac Herzog is preparing to receive official election results and conduct consultations with party leaders to determine who will be tasked with forming the government. While Likud is the largest faction and Netanyahu the incumbent prime minister, the deciding factor will be the ability of any candidate to demonstrate a realistic chance of assembling a majority coalition. Herzog has urged political leaders to engage with an open mind to avoid a repeat election, though final decisions rest with parliament following formal negotiations.
A potential unity government combining Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar parties remains speculative due to unresolved questions. Disputes over leadership rotation, policy priorities, security issues including the handling of the October 7 incident, and the inclusion of far-right ministers like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich complicate the prospect of a broad-based coalition. Both Eisenkot and Bennett have publicly pledged not to join a Netanyahu-led government, underscoring the political risks associated with any compromise.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to serve as caretaker prime minister and retains executive authority until an alternative government is sworn in. Eisenkot and his collaborators could attempt to alter parliamentary dynamics by securing votes in the Knesset to challenge the incumbent government’s agenda, potentially signaling a shift in legislative power even without a formal coalition. However, such steps carry the risk of political fragmentation if they fail to produce tangible results.
International factors could also influence Israel’s political calculus. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s support for Netanyahu and his interest in fostering a broad Israeli government are noted, though American influence cannot override Israel’s internal political processes and legal framework for government formation.
As negotiations continue, the possibility of another election remains on the table if parties fail to bridge divides. For now, Netanyahu’s incumbency affords him a degree of stability, even as Eisenkot’s opposition bloc grapples with the challenge of converting electoral gains into governing authority. The unfolding political impasse underscores the deep divisions within Israeli politics and the difficulty of assembling consensus in a highly fragmented parliament.