Conflicts and disruptions in global energy markets threaten to reverse progress made in reducing hunger worldwide, a senior official from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) warned Tuesday, following the release of a new United Nations report on global food security.

The report, published by a Rome-based U.N. agency, indicates that while global hunger has declined modestly in recent years, the overall situation remains precarious. Projections suggest that by 2030, more than 500 million people could face chronic hunger, with Africa expected to bear the greatest share of this burden.

IFAD President Alvaro Lario highlighted the interconnected challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, energy supply disruptions, and escalating fuel, fertilizer, and food costs. In an interview conducted earlier this month, Lario drew attention to the potential impact of ongoing conflicts, including uncertainty surrounding shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz amid conflict in Iran. He estimated that persistent shocks could push an additional 9 million to 18 million people into hunger.

“We are in a current era where we have the highest number of conflicts and are still increasing,” Lario said. He emphasized that conflicts contribute not only to food insecurity but also to displacement and refugee crises, creating a complex cycle that hinders efforts to reduce hunger.

Lario noted that rising energy prices have a direct bearing on agricultural production, particularly for small-scale farmers reliant on diesel fuel for irrigation, harvesting, and transportation. These increased costs subsequently contribute to higher food prices, exacerbating affordability challenges. According to the report, roughly one-third of the global population cannot afford a healthy diet, a figure that rises to around 77% in low-income countries.

The report also underscored climate change as a mounting threat to food systems. Floods, extended droughts, and extreme heat events are increasingly common, disrupting agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods worldwide. Lario called for a shift in governmental focus toward resilience and climate adaptation strategies in vulnerable communities, rather than relying predominantly on emergency responses after crises occur.

“This is just becoming the new normal,” Lario said, referencing ongoing weather extremes that have persisted for years in several regions.

Africa’s food security situation is particularly urgent. For the first time, the continent has surpassed Asia in the number of people suffering from hunger. Nearly 60% of the world’s chronically undernourished population is projected to live in Africa by 2030. Lario attributed this trend to rapid population growth coupled with slower economic development compared to parts of Asia. He advocated for increased investment in agriculture, infrastructure, and food systems, noting that African nations currently import close to $100 billion in food annually. Strengthening local production, storage, distribution, and regional trade networks are seen as critical steps to enhance food security.

Lario concluded that without strengthened commitments to building resilient food systems, progress against hunger remains vulnerable to being undone by ongoing conflicts, energy market instability, and climate pressures.