Labour Party members show a clear preference for Andy Burnham over Wes Streeting as a potential successor to Keir Starmer, according to a recent survey conducted before the party’s significant local election setbacks. The poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 Labour members, found that 42% would support Burnham as leader if given a free choice, compared to just 11% for Streeting. Burnham also enjoys a considerably higher favourability rating of 44%, while Streeting’s stands at 18%, roughly on par with fellow contenders Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband.

The results highlight a pronounced ideological divide within the party membership, with Burnham, Miliband, and Rayner positioned on the left of the party, while Streeting is associated with Labour’s right wing. Streeting has historical ties to the Blairite Progress faction and to former Labour figure Peter Mandelson. In an apparent strategic shift, Streeting has recently sought to reposition himself closer to the left in an effort to broaden his appeal ahead of a possible leadership contest. Such moves come amid data indicating that nearly half (48%) of Labour members identify as “fairly leftwing,” according to research from Queen Mary University of London.

The party membership’s ideological leanings remain nuanced. The close outcome of Labour’s deputy leadership election and diminishing voter turnout suggest that the party base largely adheres to a so-called soft left stance. Meanwhile, many members express skepticism of candidates who attempt to adopt more left-wing rhetoric than their previous records substantiate—a dynamic partly shaped by unmet expectations following Starmer’s 2020 leadership victory over Corbyn-aligned Rebecca Long-Bailey. Since Starmer took over from Jeremy Corbyn in April 2020, Labour membership has declined sharply from a peak of over 532,000 in late 2019 to approximately 333,000 at the end of 2024.

Political analyst Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University, attributes some of this loss to member disillusionment, with defections occurring towards the Green Party, newly formed parties, or complete disengagement from political affiliation. Bale notes that Starmer’s pragmatic centrism, particularly his stance on the European Union, has alienated some members. However, he cautions that remaining members are predominantly left-leaning and socially liberal, and far from aligned with the party’s right wing.

Despite these challenges, Streeting is considered by many as the candidate most prepared for a leadership contest, partly due to his perceived electability. Bale indicates that winning elections remains a key concern for Labour members, as evidenced by Starmer’s 2020 victory over the more leftist Long-Bailey. Should Streeting convincingly present himself as the best option to secure future electoral success, he may still be able to garner sufficient support, even if he does not currently resonate as the ideological preference among the party’s grassroots.