Nations affected by a series of severe climate disasters are preparing to convene for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) next month in Antalya, Türkiye. Delegates will face a challenging environment marked by escalating global temperatures, extreme weather events, and heightened geopolitical tensions that complicate efforts to reach significant agreements on reducing fossil fuel emissions.

This year's conference comes in the wake of devastating heatwaves and wildfires across Europe, widespread flooding in Nepal, and record-breaking temperatures worldwide. These developments highlight the urgent climate crisis, which experts say is further intensified by an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern expected to reach its peak around the time of the meeting. The phenomenon is anticipated to exacerbate weather volatility globally and contribute to unprecedented heat levels.

Adding to the complexity are the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which have disrupted global energy markets and driven oil and gas prices to high levels. This instability puts additional pressure on fossil fuel-importing countries and shapes the climate discussions. Türkiye is promoting a voluntary “electrification” pledge aimed at curbing emissions while reducing dependency on imported energy, although this initiative stops short of binding commitments to phase out fossil fuels.

“Heat and Hormuz” are expected to be central themes, according to David Waskow of the World Resources Institute—a reference to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for roughly a fifth of the world’s hydrocarbon shipments, now a zone of geopolitical uncertainty following conflict in the region.

The conference is being co-hosted by Türkiye and Australia, the latter being a major fossil fuel exporter. This joint arrangement reflects a compromise after a contested bid and places Australia’s Climate Minister Chris Bowen at the forefront of the negotiations. Bowen emphasized the immediacy of climate threats, stating that recent extreme events underline that climate change is no longer a future problem but a current reality with escalating costs for inaction.

Ahead of COP31, a preparatory meeting has already taken place in the Pacific region, with leaders and officials gathering in Tuvalu and Fiji to discuss climate vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies.

Unlike previous COP meetings, which produced landmark agreements such as the phasedown of coal usage, this year’s agenda is notably lighter on major policy decisions. Although over 100 issues are slated for discussion, many focus on technical aspects like establishing indicators to measure progress in climate adaptation rather than sweeping new commitments.

Waskow anticipates that the Antalya conference will require detailed negotiation work from governments with the goal of incremental progress, acknowledging that bold, dramatic outcomes are unlikely during this session.