At Villa Country, a leading venue for sertanejo music in São Paulo, the rise of Brazil’s version of country music reflects a broader political transformation underway in the country. The genre’s growing popularity coincides with the consolidation of a conservative identity in Brazil, one shaped heavily by influences from the United States and intertwined with the rapid expansion of the agricultural sector and evangelical Christianity.

This cultural and political shift has gained momentum over the past decade, culminating in a tight presidential race set for Sunday. Polls indicate that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is poised to narrowly defeat incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Such an outcome would signal the right’s ability to sustain and deepen a political movement rooted in rural and evangelical support, transcending the breakthrough electoral success of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018.

Analysts note growing parallels between Brazilian and American politics, fueled by a conservative base that feels marginalized by traditional elites. At campaign events, the display of U.S. flags echoes the “Make America Great Again” spirit, highlighting this transnational cultural influence. The conservative constituency, long present but previously less politically assertive, has sharpened its stance amid a perceived backlash against shifting social values.

Evangelical Protestantism, which accounted for just 8% of Brazil’s population in 1980, now encompasses nearly 27%—roughly 50 million people, many living in economically disadvantaged urban areas. These churches often provide community support but also promote conservative views on family and sexuality, aligning closely with the political right. Recent polling indicates that approximately 70% of evangelical voters favor Bolsonaro over Lula, who garners about 26% support within this group.

Simultaneously, emerging entrepreneurial aspirations among younger Brazilians further align with conservative economic ideals. In communities like Paraisópolis, a São Paulo favela, many residents seek self-employment through small businesses rather than traditional jobs, reflecting a generational desire for autonomy and economic mobility. This entrepreneurial drive is sometimes fused with evangelical teachings, mirroring aspects of the U.S. prosperity gospel movement. Figures such as influencer Pablo Marçal advocate a blend of business coaching and religious doctrine appealing to this demographic.

Another key factor in Brazil’s political rightward shift is the country’s transformation into a global agricultural powerhouse. Its dominance in soy and cattle production has elevated interior regions economically and culturally, establishing rural areas as conservative strongholds analogous to the U.S. Sunbelt. The sertanejo music industry, centered in Goiânia within the agricultural belt, now commands significant cultural influence, as evidenced by the genre’s dominance on national music charts.

The left’s challenge in engaging these groups has intensified, particularly after the 2011 legalization of same-sex marriage under the Workers’ Party (PT) government, a milestone that galvanized evangelical leaders to mobilize voters toward conservative candidates. The PT has since struggled to reconcile its socially progressive urban middle-class base with a working-class electorate that often maintains conservative social views.

The Bolsonaro family, hailing from an upper-middle-class suburb of Rio de Janeiro, has effectively harnessed resentment toward cultural elites to position themselves as political outsiders. Yet Lula remains a strong contender, sustaining support among many lower-income Brazilians through his long-standing political presence. Supporters like Fabio Lima, a sertanejo fan from Minas Gerais, recognize Lula’s appeal but question what the future holds beyond his tenure.

As Brazil prepares to choose its next president, the convergence of cultural identity, religious growth, and economic transformation continues to redefine the nation’s political landscape.