Latino voters in several Massachusetts cities shifted toward the Republican Party in the 2024 presidential election, opening new opportunities and challenges for GOP gubernatorial candidate Michael Minogue as he seeks to expand his support in this demographic. Despite these Republican gains, Democrats maintain a strong hold on Latino voters, underscoring the complexities of voter outreach amid changing political dynamics.
In cities with predominantly Latino populations, President Donald Trump increased his vote share notably in 2024 compared to 2020. In Lawrence, Trump captured 40 percent of the vote, up from 25 percent four years earlier. Chelsea saw a rise from 21 percent to 30 percent, and Holyoke experienced a smaller increase from 30 percent to 33 percent. While Trump’s overall margin of defeat in Massachusetts remained substantial, these trends highlighted his ability to connect with some Latino voters, particularly around issues related to the economy.
Both Minogue and incumbent Governor Maura Healey have intensified efforts to court Latino voters ahead of the state’s gubernatorial election. Minogue has engaged with Latino communities through roundtables, meet-and-greets, and Spanish- and Portuguese-language advertising. He has also participated in interviews with local influencers and Portuguese-language media. Healey, alongside Lieutenant Governor Kim Driscoll, has focused heavily on Spanish-language media outreach and invested approximately $300,000 in targeted advertising aimed at Black and Latino voters. Healey’s campaign also launched a “Latinos con Maura” coalition during the summer.
Recent polling indicates that these Democratic efforts have so far yielded stronger support for Healey. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll found that about 73 percent of Hispanic voters planned to back Healey, while 20 percent favored Minogue.
Minogue’s campaign emphasizes his business background and a platform centered on lowering the cost of living and cutting taxes, messaging analysts say resonated with Latino voters in 2024 amid economic concerns. Rafael M. Pérez Medina, a Latino policy analyst at the Mauricio Gastón Institute for Latino Community Development and Public Policy at UMass Boston, noted that many Latinos in gateway cities have ties to small businesses and may respond favorably to economic messages aligned with entrepreneurship.
However, shifts in attitudes toward immigration policy complicate the political environment for Republicans. The GOP’s traditional focus on immigration enforcement has increasingly become a liability amid heightened national crackdowns and related fears within Latino communities. A New York Times/Siena poll from September found that voters generally trust Democrats more than Republicans on immigration issues.
Healey’s campaign has sought to leverage this dynamic through advertising that contrasts Minogue’s positions with imagery of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities, including a widely circulated ad depicting an incident in Fitchburg where ICE officers attempted to detain a child from a man experiencing a medical emergency. Minogue has expressed qualified support for limiting ICE’s presence in sensitive locations such as schools, day care centers, and hospitals, while advocating for close cooperation between ICE and local law enforcement to address criminal activity.
Minogue’s stance on immigration remains a point of contention. He has indicated he would not have supported the PROTECT Act, legislation restricting ICE detentions in certain public spaces, but says he supports measures to balance enforcement with community safety.
Within the Latino community, reactions to Minogue’s positions are mixed. John Rigal, chair of the Lawrence Republican city committee, observed that while some Latino voters have reservations about Minogue due to immigration concerns, their apprehensions are often rooted in broader fears related to recent enforcement actions. “A lot of people don’t love Governor Healey,” Rigal said, “but at the same time, the Latino community is very scared because of everything that’s going on right now.”
As the gubernatorial race advances, both campaigns appear poised to continue leveraging immigration and economic issues in their efforts to win over Latino voters in Massachusetts.