A recent study has identified a series of political and global events over the past decade as significant contributors to a sustained decline in mental health across the United Kingdom. Researchers from University College London analyzed data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, encompassing 87,857 adults from 2009 to 2024, to assess the impact of five major “systemic shocks” on psychological wellbeing.

The events examined include the Brexit referendum in June 2016, the first and second Covid-19 lockdowns beginning in 2020, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the mini-budget announced by then-Prime Minister Liz Truss in September 2022. Each of these episodes corresponded with immediate increases in rates of depression and anxiety, as measured by the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and associated primary care consultations.

According to lead researcher Dr. Annie Jeffery, the period has been marked by overlapping crises and ongoing uncertainty that have exerted measurable negative effects on mental health. The Brexit vote was associated with an approximate increase of 120,000 additional people seeking help for depression. However, the first Covid lockdown had a more pronounced effect, linked to around 900,000 more individuals presenting with symptoms severe enough to require general practitioner (GP) support.

Following Russia’s military action in Ukraine, an estimated 15,000 additional patients per month sought GP consultations for depression. The announcement of the UK government’s mini-budget under Liz Truss, which shocked financial markets and was quickly reversed, led to roughly 23,000 more monthly GP visits attributable to depression. The data suggest that while some impacts were sudden and acute—such as after the Brexit referendum and initial Covid restrictions—others, like the effects of the Ukraine war and the mini-budget, contributed to more gradual increases in psychological distress over time.

The study, published in BMJ Mental Health, notes that levels of psychological distress had been rising gradually since 2009 but accelerated notably from 2015 onward. Importantly, the elevated distress observed since these events has persisted and has not returned to pre-2016 levels. This trend parallels the rise in demand for NHS mental health services, which has nearly doubled from 2.64 million people in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25. New monthly referrals for mental health care surged by 47% between April 2022 and July 2026, increasing from 360,000 to 530,000.

Andy Bell, chief executive of the Centre for Mental Health thinktank, highlighted that the rise in mental health difficulties is multifactorial, noting the compounded effect of multiple societal “shocks” alongside long-term austerity measures that have reduced protective buffers for vulnerable populations. Tom Pollard, director of policy at the mental health charity Mind, said the substantial increase in demand has strained NHS services as more individuals seek support for anxiety, stress, and other mental health challenges.

The forthcoming report by Prof Peter Fonagy, commissioned by the government, is expected to further explore the surge in mental health diagnoses, including conditions such as ADHD and autism, which have coincided with record numbers of people unable to work or disengaged from education and employment.

Overall, the findings underscore the broad and lasting impact of political, economic, and global events on public mental health in the UK, raising questions about the capacity of existing health and social care systems to cope with ongoing and future challenges.