Queensland Premier David Crisafulli faces internal warnings over his proposed reform to the state’s voting system, with concerns it could strengthen One Nation’s electoral prospects in upcoming polls. Last week, Crisafulli reaffirmed plans to replace compulsory preferential voting with optional preferential voting, fulfilling a pledge made during the 2024 state election campaign.
The move would allow voters to mark “just vote 1” on ballots rather than ranking candidates in order of preference. However, senior figures within the Liberal National Party (LNP) have expressed apprehension about the potential political repercussions, particularly in regional seats traditionally considered safe. The recent surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has sparked fears that a shift to optional preferential voting could lead to unexpected losses.
According to unnamed party insiders, the shift could complicate campaigns in rural and regional electorates, where margins typically range between 8 and 12 percent. One source suggested this could turn contests into three-way races, increasing vulnerability for LNP incumbents. Another federal Coalition representative commented on One Nation’s growing popularity, suggesting that voters are increasingly motivated by the party leader rather than individual candidates.
Experts have also cautioned against the reform. Peter Brent, an electoral researcher at the University of Melbourne, described the move as a potential “own goal” that might undermine the LNP’s electoral success. He highlighted that preferences from One Nation voters tend to favor the LNP over the Australian Labor Party (ALP), meaning that compulsory preferential voting currently benefits the Coalition. Brent advised the party to reconsider its plan unless it anticipates a significant decline in One Nation support.
The compulsory preferential voting system was introduced in Queensland in 2016 under then Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, a Labor leader, aiming to secure traditional preference flows from Greens voters to Labor. Crisafulli pledged during the 2024 election campaign to reverse this change, arguing in favor of optional preferential voting.
Election analyst Kevin Bonham noted that while recent polling shows the LNP leading comfortably, the reform could become detrimental if the race tightens. He observed that compulsory preferential voting tends to consolidate votes better in such scenarios, reducing the likelihood of vote exhaustion caused by One Nation preferences.
Bonham also suggested that the LNP’s motivation to implement optional preferential voting might stem partly from a desire to avoid controversy over preference deals with One Nation, allowing the party to ask voters to simply “just vote for us” without directing preferences.
Polling data indicates a significant increase in One Nation’s support in Queensland, rising by 26 percent since the May 2025 federal election. Some surveys show Senator Pauline Hanson’s popularity eclipsing that of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese among Queensland voters.
John Wanna, a political professor at Australian National University and Griffith University, acknowledged the risks but predicted the reform could ultimately serve the LNP by disrupting the traditional preference flows between the Greens and Labor.
The LNP may also delay implementing the reform until after monitoring results from the upcoming Victorian state election, which still uses compulsory preferential voting. Meanwhile, Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson has faced intense scrutiny amid speculation about potential preference arrangements with One Nation, fueling criticism from Labor Premier Ben Carroll. Several Liberal sources indicate that preference negotiations in Victoria may be paused until candidate nominations close next month.