Deaths in England and Wales began to outnumber births on July 1, marking the first time this demographic shift has occurred and signaling the start of a prolonged period of population change, according to recent projections. Analysis by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates this milestone reflects a broader trend expected to continue over the next decade.
The ONS has recently adjusted its population forecasts downward, citing a significant decline in birth rates and a reduction in net migration. The CSJ's analysis highlights that deaths are projected to exceed births by approximately 450,000 over the next ten years in England and Wales. This development suggests the country is entering what the CSJ terms a “new demographic era.”
Edward Davies, head of research at the CSJ, described the crossing of this threshold as a “worrying milestone,” attributing it to “decades of failure to adequately support family life.” The total fertility rate, which measures the average number of children born per woman, has been steadily decreasing since 2012. In 2025, it reached a record low of 1.39—significantly below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain a stable population absent net migration. This figure also contrasts with the traditional notion of the British family having around 2.4 children.
The decline in birth rates has been linked to multiple factors, including economic pressures such as the high cost of housing and childcare, as well as social shifts with more women focusing on careers and couples opting for smaller families or postponing parenthood.
The CSJ warns that this ongoing drop in birth rates will have significant economic consequences, leading to increased government spending and a rapid rise in public debt. Forecasts suggest that debt could reach 270 percent of gross domestic product in the future, largely to cover the costs associated with an ageing population. The think tank also noted that if the government aims to sustain the current ratio of workers to pensioners, the state pension age would need to increase to 75 for children born today who are eight years old or younger.
Mr. Davies emphasized the need for policy measures that strengthen family support, promote marriage, and encourage men to take on greater responsibility in family life, alongside efforts to make parenting more financially accessible.
Despite the decline in births, the UK’s overall population is still projected to rise by about 1.7 million by 2034, reaching around 71 million, mainly due to immigration. However, this growth is expected to slow and eventually reverse by the mid-2050s, contrasting with earlier estimates that anticipated continual growth until 2096.