WARREN, Ohio — As the Nov. 3 midterm elections approach, Ohio Democrats and labor leaders are aiming to regain support from working-class voters who defected to Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential race. Once a reliable bastion for Democrats, the state shifted decisively Republican as Trump appealed to voters concerned about economic decline and social issues. However, some in Ohio’s blue-collar communities are showing signs of reconsideration amid ongoing economic challenges and dissatisfaction with Trump’s rhetoric.
Trump’s initial rise in Ohio helped transform the state from a perennial swing state to a stronghold for Republicans. After voting for the eventual winner in 14 consecutive presidential elections from 1964 through 2016, Ohio backed Trump again in 2020 even as Democrat Joe Biden won nationally. With key races including a U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, and a gubernatorial race pitting Democrat Amy Acton against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, the state is highly contested this cycle.
While Trump is not on the ballot, he has actively campaigned for Husted and Ramaswamy, seeking to invigorate the Republican base. Trump held a rally in Youngstown on October 12, reflecting ongoing efforts to hold onto working-class voters in regions like Mahoning Valley, which has suffered industrial decline. The area has seen a dramatic drop in manufacturing jobs—from 50,000 in 1990 to around 20,000 in 2026, according to U.S. Labor Department data.
Among voters, uncertainty persists. Paul Ringold, a steel hauler and pastor in Warren, exemplifies this ambivalence. Ringold supported Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Trump again in 2024 but remains undecided in other races due to concerns about rising fuel and food prices and the president’s confrontational style. “I wish he would just tone down that rhetoric,” Ringold said, citing frustration with the inflationary pressures affecting his community.
Early voting data from Trumbull County, home to Warren, indicate higher Democratic turnout relative to Republicans during the first days of early voting: 1,224 Democrats compared to 559 Republicans and 453 unaffiliated voters. Political analysts suggest that if working-class voters shift away from Trump, Sherrod Brown could be a likely beneficiary because of his longstanding populist appeal.
Labor representatives point to economic issues as a key factor. Jose Arroyo, a United Steelworkers official, acknowledged that while Trump capitalized on worker dissatisfaction over lost pensions and shuttered plants, his focus on social issues overshadowed efforts to implement policies that might tangibly improve working-class lives. Arroyo also linked the ongoing conflict in Iran to increased domestic energy demand, which has helped sustain some manufacturing jobs but also contributed to higher consumer prices.
Meanwhile, labor leaders criticize the Trump administration’s impact on union organizing and workers’ rights. Ohio AFL-CIO President Tim Burga highlighted the “dismantling” of the National Labor Relations Board under Trump, which limited the agency’s ability to address unfair labor practices for nearly a year. Burga also pointed to setbacks in national industrial policy and trade tensions with Canada as factors undermining workers’ interests.
Voters in Ohio remain divided. Some, like retired coal plant worker Chuck Burns, praise Trump for immigration enforcement and economic gains reflected in his retirement savings. Others, such as Paul Callahan, a lifelong Democrat from Cortland, report family members drifting back toward Democrats due to economic grievances, specifically concerns over perceived political corruption.
As Ohio grapples with these complex political and economic dynamics, the state’s role as a battleground will be pivotal in determining control of Congress and the balance of power for the remainder of President Trump’s term.