With less than six weeks remaining before the November midterm elections, Democrats hold a narrower lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot compared to the same point in the 2018 cycle, according to recent polling data. An NBC News survey of registered voters shows Democrats leading by five percentage points—50% to 45%—a significant decline from the 12-point advantage they enjoyed in 2018.

The current margin remains outside the poll’s margin of error but is notably slimmer than Democratic leads recorded in past midterms when they successfully captured the House, though fell short of winning the Senate. At the time of the 2018 elections, Democrats ended up with an 8.6-point popular vote edge in House races. In contrast, a RealClearPolitics average of recent generic ballot polls currently puts Democrats ahead by about 8.1 points.

Historically, the party occupying the White House tends to lose seats in midterm elections, with exceptions being rare since 1938. Economic concerns related to affordability and persistently low approval ratings for former President Donald Trump had led many analysts to predict Democrats would at least maintain control of the House. However, the latest polling suggests the Democratic Party may struggle to recapture the sizeable 41-seat gain they secured in 2018. Some analysts attribute this to redistricting after the 2020 census, which has reportedly made large-scale shifts in House seats increasingly difficult.

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats lost ground in the Senate, losing seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while making gains in Nevada and Arizona. This election cycle presents a different map, with a variety of factors influencing both chamber outcomes.

Part of the challenge for Democrats lies in their current public perception. The poll found that Democrats have a more negative favorability rating than Republicans, with 29% viewing the party positively and 50% negatively. Republicans had a more favorable image among respondents, with 36% positive and 49% negative. Meanwhile, the Democratic Socialists of America continue to receive low favorability ratings, with only 22% of voters viewing the group positively. About half of voters said they would be less likely to support candidates who endorse many of the DSA’s proposed policies.

Republicans have actively leveraged concerns about the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America to energize their base and attempt to defy historical trends by holding the House in the upcoming midterms. As the race tightens, both parties are preparing for a competitive and closely watched election.