Democratic candidates are showing mixed results in key Senate battlegrounds across Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine, according to recent polls conducted jointly by The New York Times and Siena University. While Democrats hold leads in Michigan and New Hampshire, they face challenges in Maine, a state long considered one of their best opportunities to flip a Republican seat.
In Michigan, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee and former health official, has consolidated support within his party despite earlier concerns about unity following a contentious primary. He holds a five-point lead over Republican former Representative Mike Rogers. El-Sayed’s economic platform, including his advocacy for single-payer health care, resonates with voters. He is viewed as more trustworthy than Rogers on handling the cost of living by a nine-point margin and is capturing support from 8 percent of voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024.
New Hampshire’s Senate race shows Democratic Representative Chris Pappas maintaining a five-point advantage over former Senator John E. Sununu. This result could dampen Republican expectations of a more competitive contest in a state where Republicans have not held a Senate seat since 2010. Among independents—a critical sway group—Pappas enjoys a 10-point lead. However, perceptions of the Democratic Party remain mixed, with many voters describing the party as divided and focused on the wrong issues.
Conversely, in Maine, Senator Susan Collins, a Republican perceived as vulnerable, holds a narrow three-point lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson. This comes after Jackson became the nominee following the abrupt end of Graham Platner’s campaign over the summer, which disrupted Democratic momentum. Jackson’s polling numbers represent his lowest public support since securing the nomination in July. Despite Collins’s moderate profile and efforts to emphasize state-focused accomplishments, nearly 12 percent of voters who prefer Democratic control of the Senate still plan to support her. Collins also benefits from a majority of Maine voters viewing her as the candidate better able to deliver resources and serve effectively.
The Maine race complicates Democrats’ broader strategy to gain control of the Senate, which requires flipping at least four Republican-held seats—including in states President Trump carried by large margins—while defending their own. The poll was conducted largely before a report emerged detailing the 2025 closure of an FBI investigation into allegations involving a close ally of Collins related to illegal campaign contributions. The senator’s office denied the claims.
Across all three states, approximately 54 percent of voters favor Democrats controlling the Senate, yet this preference does not fully translate into support for individual Democratic candidates. Independent voters are deeply divided in Michigan and Maine, nearly evenly splitting their support between Democrats and Republicans, while leaning Democratic in New Hampshire.
Voters’ views of President Trump are broadly unfavorable, with majorities expressing dissatisfaction with his handling of issues such as immigration, tariffs, the war with Iran, living costs, and energy prices. Nearly two-thirds describe him as focused on the wrong priorities. Despite this, Republican Senate nominees exceed Trump’s approval ratings, suggesting they may be able to mitigate the negative impact of his unpopularity.
Economic concerns dominate voters’ priorities in all three states, outweighing foreign policy issues such as the conflicts in Israel and Gaza or Iran. Thirty-six percent identified economic issues as central to their vote, while only 8 percent ranked foreign policy as most important. Candidates’ trustworthiness on foreign affairs is more contested, especially in Michigan, where voters are nearly evenly split in their confidence between El-Sayed and Rogers.
The findings reflect the complex political landscape that Democrats and Republicans face in closely contested states, highlighting the challenges of candidate appeal, party unity, and voter priorities ahead of the November midterm elections.