The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is gaining significant traction in Berlin ahead of the city state’s regional election on Sunday, challenging the traditional dominance of the centrist parties. With its support reportedly doubling since the last election in 2023, the AfD stands in a close four-way contest for first place, marking a notable shift in the capital’s political landscape.

At the heart of the AfD’s Berlin campaign is a focus on issues such as violent crime, housing shortages, and dissatisfaction with the city’s education system. The party paints a picture of a capital in decline, burdened by debt and an administration unable to meet the needs of pensioners, families, and young people amid ongoing economic challenges. This message resonates particularly in outer-city districts like Marzahn, Lichtenberg, and Spandau, where the AfD has traditionally found support, but this time it is gaining momentum beyond its usual base.

The party’s approach in Berlin is somewhat tempered compared to its campaign in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where it recently achieved a striking victory with 43.8 percent of the vote. While the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt employed more confrontational rhetoric, including explicit calls for mass deportations of immigrants, the Berlin campaign leans more heavily on concrete local issues. Nonetheless, some members continue to employ inflammatory language, emphasizing opposition to immigration and criticizing the welfare system’s inclusivity.

At a rally near the Eastgate shopping complex in Marzahn, AfD candidates and supporters gathered alongside a sizeable counter-demonstration. The event showcased the party’s mix of traditional and more aggressive elements, featuring speeches addressing concerns over immigration and national identity. Among the speakers was Beatrix von Storch, an AfD Member of Parliament, and Christina Baum from Saxony-Anhalt, who warned of what she termed a "population exchange" through immigration.

Supporters at the rally reflected a broad cross-section of Berlin residents who previously did not vote but are now drawn to the AfD’s platform. Some expressed frustration with the government's handling of international conflicts and pandemic policies, while others cited worries about crime and cultural change.

The AfD’s rise in Berlin coincides with difficulties facing other parties. The city’s current Christian Democratic Union (CDU) mayor, Kai Wegner, announced he would not seek re-election following criticism over his handling of a recent power outage. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidate, Steffen Krach, is under criminal investigation related to past professional conduct, which he denies. These developments have contributed to the weakening of traditional party positions, opening space for the AfD to challenge for leadership.

Despite its growing support, the AfD is widely expected to remain isolated politically, as other parties in the Berlin parliament are unlikely to form coalitions with it. The Left Party is projected to lead a coalition with the SPD and the Greens under candidate Elif Eralp. Still, an AfD breakthrough in a city with a substantial immigrant population—about 42 percent are first-generation or children of immigrants—would represent a significant political development and signal deeper shifts within Germany’s electorate.

Kristin Brinker, the AfD’s lead candidate in Berlin, described the party’s recent successes as surpassing expectations, calling them “insane” and framing the AfD as the “party of the future.” With momentum building, the outcome of Berlin’s election Sunday could signal the extent of the AfD’s expanding influence in Germany’s political system.