Former President Donald Trump has intensified his efforts to bolster Republican prospects in Texas as the state’s US Senate race tightens ahead of the November midterm elections. Over the past month, Trump has made three visits to Texas to campaign for Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general and Trump’s preferred candidate, as polling data indicate a closer-than-expected contest.
Traditionally viewed as a Republican stronghold, Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988. However, recent developments, including rising diesel prices linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran, have contributed to shifting political dynamics. In the latest Fox News poll, Paxton trails his Democratic challenger, James Talarico, by two points, marking an unusual vulnerability for Republicans in the state.
Trump, who secured Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, has explicitly acknowledged the challenges facing the GOP in Texas and other key states. At an October 1 rally, he cited concern over several competitive races, emphasizing the importance of a series of contests rather than states alone. Republicans currently hold a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to take control ahead of the midterms.
Efforts by Trump have included public calls for a debate between Paxton and Talarico—a move that Paxton’s campaign continuously sought to avoid—in hopes of shifting voter opinion. Trump also questioned Talarico’s recent absence from the campaign trail following a positive influenza diagnosis, casting doubt on his readiness for office via posts on Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social.
In addition to highlighting Paxton’s tenure as Attorney General, which Trump described as among the most successful in Texas history, the campaign has launched attacks on Talarico, including misleading claims about his dietary preferences. Trump and his allies dubbed the Democrat “Tofu-Talarico,” though Talarico is not vegan, as part of an effort to discredit him while emphasizing Paxton’s personal lifestyle choices.
The Texas Senate race is increasingly seen as a bellwether for the Republican Party’s future influence and for Trump’s standing within the GOP as a key political figure. A loss in Texas would represent a significant setback for Republicans, potentially altering the balance of power in the Senate and diminishing Trump’s role as a party kingmaker ahead of the 2028 presidential cycle. With fewer than four weeks until Election Day, Trump’s repeated returns to Texas underscore the high stakes involved in maintaining Republican control of the state’s Senate seat.