Unionized employees at the Federal Emergency Management Agency secured a legal victory last week when a federal judge ruled that efforts by the Trump administration to plan a drastic reduction in FEMA’s workforce violated federal law. However, the ruling is unlikely to halt ongoing efforts to transfer more disaster response responsibilities to state and local authorities, potentially resulting in further job losses at the agency.

In a Friday decision, U.S. District Judge Susan Illston of Northern California found that the preparation of plans to cut FEMA’s workforce by half contravened a statute enacted after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This law is designed to preserve FEMA’s independence from political interference by officials within the Department of Homeland Security, FEMA’s parent agency. Despite the ruling, the court did not order FEMA to rehire thousands of employees who were laid off earlier, as those specific cuts were not contested in the lawsuit.

The employment reductions, driven by a Trump administration initiative referred to as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), have already left FEMA significantly understaffed. As of Monday, FEMA’s deployable workforce stood at 18,862, a decline of nearly 4,000 from January 1, 2024. A recent Government Accountability Office report highlighted that more than half of FEMA’s senior leadership departed during the first year of the Trump administration’s second term, raising concerns about diminished agency capacity.

The lawsuit, brought by Democracy Forward alongside unions representing federal workers, municipalities including Baltimore, Chicago, and Harris County, Texas, as well as scientific organizations such as the American Geophysical Union, challenged the legality of the agency’s workforce reduction plans. Democracy Forward’s CEO, Skye Perryman, stated the plaintiffs aim to ensure FEMA can fulfill its congressional mandate and that federal employees are protected.

In addition to the workforce issue, Judge Illston ruled that Homeland Security and FEMA officials violated federal record-keeping laws by deleting communications related to the staffing plans. These discussions occurred through encrypted messages on the Signal app, which the court found constituted improper destruction of evidence. The judge ordered the agencies and individual officials to bear part of the legal costs incurred by the plaintiffs.

Despite the court’s decision, experts suggest that FEMA’s future staffing may still diminish under new leadership. Andrew Rumbach, senior fellow at the Urban Institute, noted that while the ruling underscored the agency’s staffing challenges, it did not restore prior job cuts. He warned that Cameron Hamilton, FEMA’s newly confirmed administrator, might pursue a more gradual reduction of personnel aligned with policy shifts favoring reduced federal involvement in disaster response.

A Trump administration panel’s FEMA overhaul roadmap, endorsed in May, proposed possible cuts and emphasized downsizing the agency’s role post-disaster, though it did not specify exact numbers. Earlier drafts associated with the plan had suggested halving FEMA’s workforce, consistent with the downsizing that triggered the lawsuit.

The Department of Homeland Security defended FEMA’s capacity to maintain “experienced leadership” and a “strong, deployable” workforce during critical hurricane and wildfire seasons but declined to comment on ongoing litigation. The court did order the agency to reinstate a limited number of employees whose terminations were deemed unlawful, but no broader rehiring mandate was imposed.