Diesel prices in the United Kingdom are poised to reach a new record high this weekend, driven by escalating global supply concerns and domestic political considerations in the United States. According to the RAC, the average price per litre of diesel recently reached 198.32 pence, approaching the previous peak of 199.09 pence recorded on June 25, 2022, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This month alone, prices have increased by 14.5 pence per litre, and since the onset of heightened tensions between the US and Iran in February, prices have risen by 55 pence.

Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, indicated that the June 2022 record is likely to be surpassed imminently as fuel retailers continue to adjust their prices upward in response to increased procurement costs.

Amid these rising prices, former US President Donald Trump has proposed a 90-day suspension of US diesel exports aimed at reducing domestic fuel costs ahead of the November midterm elections. The plan, if implemented, would prevent American producers from selling diesel overseas, potentially tightening supply on the global market.

The US oil industry has expressed strong opposition to this export ban, warning that restricting US fuel exports would exacerbate the current supply shortages and could lead to further price increases internationally, including in the UK.

Market analysts are watching the situation closely, as any disruption in the global diesel supply could have significant ramifications for fuel costs worldwide. The potential export suspension highlights the complex interplay between geopolitical dynamics and domestic policy efforts to manage inflation and consumer prices in the run-up to key political events.