Reform UK is maintaining a composed stance following recent national polls that show Labour, under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, overtaking Nigel Farage’s party for the first time since March 2025. Despite the shift, Reform officials describe the surge in Labour’s support as temporary and unsurprising.

A survey conducted by More in Common last Monday indicated Labour at 28 percent support, up four points, while Reform declined by two points to 24 percent. A subsequent poll by BMG Research placed Labour five points ahead, with 28 percent backing Burnham’s party against 23 percent for Reform. These results mark a notable reversal after months of Reform holding the lead.

Louis O’Geran of More in Common highlighted a clear swing toward Labour and away from Reform, noting an increase in loyalty among 2024 Labour voters. “In March, only half planned to vote Labour again if an election were held tomorrow; that has now risen to two-thirds,” he said. However, O’Geran stressed the uncertainty of how long this momentum might last, pointing to a potential “credibility challenge” as public skepticism remains about how Burnham will fund his popular cost-of-living proposals.

Within Reform, the reaction is controlled but candid. Party insiders acknowledge Burnham’s appeal differs markedly from that of Sir Keir Starmer, describing the new Prime Minister as “genial” and adept at leveraging social media platforms like TikTok. The introduction of “quasi-populist” measures during Burnham’s first week—such as reducing bus fares and lowering electricity bills—has been recognized by Reform sources as more effective than Starmer’s initiatives.

Reform officials express that they anticipated Labour’s temporary resurgence following Starmer’s departure, citing a general public preference for a change at the top of the Labour Party. Nevertheless, they project the Burnham bounce will diminish as economic difficulties mount and internal disagreements within Labour, particularly over welfare policy, intensify. One senior Reform figure predicted Labour would not maintain its lead through the year’s end.

The party also confronts ongoing challenges, including scrutiny over Nigel Farage’s finances and investigations surrounding donations linked to deputy leader Richard Tice and Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick; all deny any wrongdoing. Farage’s attempt to trigger a by-election in Clacton was notably unsuccessful, with major parties refusing to participate, leaving a novelty candidate as his only opposition. Some Reform members privately characterize the episode as a “silly-season” distraction they are eager to move past.

Despite these setbacks, Reform leadership emphasizes the resilience of their polling figures and plans to adopt a more aggressive approach in the coming months. Ahead of the party conference in September, they are preparing a concentrated media campaign to challenge Labour’s policies, including attacks on Burnham’s social care funding proposals, which Reform leaders have labeled a “death tax.”

One senior Reform source likened their position to that of a “heavyweight boxer standing in the middle of the ring taking everyone’s punches,” asserting the need to shift from defense to offense in the political arena: “We’ve got to start punching… We’ve got to step up and make our case rather than constantly defend.”