Sam Darnold has emerged as a notable contender to lead the NFL in passing yards this upcoming season, despite bookmakers offering him relatively long odds. The Seahawks quarterback, who played a pivotal role in Seattle’s recent Super Bowl victory, is listed at 28/1 to finish first in the league in passing yards, trailing 14 other players according to current betting lines.
Darnold’s resurgence follows a period of doubt regarding his potential as a high-level starting quarterback. Selected third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, he faced setbacks early in his career with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers before spending time as a backup with the San Francisco 49ers. His breakthrough came in 2024 with the Minnesota Vikings, when he threw for more than 4,300 yards, ranking fifth in the NFL despite fewer passing attempts compared to other top quarterbacks. However, his postseason performance with the Vikings raised some questions, leading to yet another team change.
With Seattle, Darnold demonstrated significant improvement and consistency, steering the offense effectively while benefiting from a strong defense. Last season, he again surpassed 4,000 passing yards and secured a fifth-place finish league-wide, even though his rate of passing attempts was significantly lower than some peers.
Among those favored over Darnold to lead in passing yards are Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott—all proven high-volume passers with recent strong statistical records. Patrick Mahomes, despite being among the leaders in odds, is recovering from a December ACL tear, and Bo Nix is coming back from a broken ankle in January. Tyler Shough, a sophomore quarterback with a lower yardage average last season, also has better odds, which some observers find puzzling given Darnold’s demonstrated production and experience.
Seattle’s passing offense remains formidable, aided by top-tier receiving options. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL with over 1,700 receiving yards last season, marking one of the highest single-season totals in league history. Cooper Kupp returns as the team’s second receiver, bringing veteran reliability and postseason impact as he advances through his 30s. Additionally, Rashid Shaheed was reacquired from the New Orleans Saints midseason and is viewed as a potential key contributor with his deep-threat speed complementing Darnold’s precise passing.
Coming off a Super Bowl championship and at 27 years of age, Darnold appears poised to continue building on his upward trajectory. Analysts note that even with another new offensive coordinator in Seattle, his consistent yardage production over two seasons with different teams suggests he can adapt smoothly. With these factors in mind, some consider Darnold’s 28/1 odds an attractive value bet to lead the NFL in passing yards this year.