President Donald Trump has announced an agreement between the United States and Iran centered on two primary objectives: reopening the Strait of Hormuz for international shipping and preventing the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons. While the full details of the deal, including the timeline for sanctions relief, have not yet been disclosed, critics note that the agreement largely overlooks the Iranian populace, focusing instead on state-level commitments.

Analysts emphasize that enduring stability in the region depends on engagement with the Iranian people, who are considered by some to be the regime's principal internal challenge. Iran hosts a significant segment of the population that opposes the current leadership and expresses pro-American and pro-Israeli sentiments, particularly amid rising authoritarian measures by Tehran. The Iranian government has already characterized the deal as a victory, asserting that it compelled Washington to acquiesce to its demands—a narrative that risks dominating in the absence of transparent communication from the U.S. side.

The timing of the agreement comes as Iran begins to lift one of its longest internet blackouts, an opening that some believe offers the Trump administration an opportunity to communicate directly with ordinary Iranians. Many within the diaspora have expressed solidarity with domestic groups opposing the regime, whose recent actions include the elimination of several senior military figures and degradation of its missile capabilities.

Notably, the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, reportedly died on the first day of the recent conflict, though Iranian officials delayed announcing his death for over four months, citing security concerns. Following the news’s eventual spread, public celebrations took place in multiple cities, including Khamenei’s hometown of Mashhad, reflecting longstanding internal opposition.

During the height of hostilities, President Trump and CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper addressed the Iranian public directly, urging restraint in the moment but promising a future signal to rise against the regime. However, this signal has not been issued, raising questions about Washington’s follow-through on its commitment to Iranian activists.

Concerns have also been raised regarding potential sanctions relief as part of the agreement. Since the April ceasefire, Iranian authorities have intensified their crackdown on dissent through increased checkpoints, extrajudicial killings, public executions, and mass arrests. Critics argue that easing sanctions could inadvertently empower the regime to continue suppressing its population.

Advocates for sustained U.S. support suggest that any diplomatic progress should be paired with initiatives to aid the Iranian people directly, such as expanding satellite internet access to bypass state censorship. This approach aims to reinforce the distinction between the Iranian government and its citizens—a distinction President Trump has acknowledged in previous statements.

Janatan Sayeh, an Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a native of Tehran, stresses the importance of maintaining this focus to ensure that diplomatic efforts do not neglect the aspirations and welfare of ordinary Iranians amid ongoing turmoil.