Downing Street aides push Burnham to call early election

By the Editorial Team · Friday, September 25, 2026

Advisers within Downing Street are urging Labour leader Andy Burnham to consider calling a general election as early as spring 2024 to capitalize on favourable polling and policy flexibility before the party’s manifesto limits become binding. Labour would likely need support from the SNP and Liberal Democrats to form a majority, with SNP backing contingent on promises for a future Scottish independence referendum.

Advisers within Downing Street are reportedly encouraging Labour leader Andy Burnham to consider calling a general election as early as the spring of next year. Several senior figures in Burnham’s team believe that an early election could provide the party with its best opportunity to secure another majority government.

Recent polling underscores Labour's current position as the largest party, though it remains significantly short of an outright majority. A constituency-level survey conducted by YouGov showed that if an election were held now, Labour would fall 85 seats short of a majority. Similarly, a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll conducted between August and September suggests Labour could win 241 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 130 and Reform with 123. According to this poll of 14,000 respondents, Labour would need to rely on support from both the Liberal Democrats, projected to win 71 seats, and the Scottish National Party (SNP), forecast to claim 40 seats, to form a majority in the House of Commons.

Sources close to the SNP and Liberal Democrats have not dismissed the possibility of providing support to Labour. However, SNP leader John Swinney's camp has made clear that such support would come with conditions, primarily the promise of a second independence referendum for Scotland. Those sources stated that Burnham would need to devolve the necessary powers to the Scottish Parliament, which currently has a pro-independence majority, to allow a future vote on independence. The timing of any referendum would then fall to the Scottish Parliament itself.

The Liberal Democrats, led by Sir Ed Davey, also appear open to different forms of collaboration with Labour, including confidence-and-supply arrangements or a formal coalition. However, party representatives have indicated that any agreement would come with clear boundaries and have not committed to any specific terms.

Within Labour and Downing Street, opinions diverge over the timing of a general election. Advocates for a spring election argue that the party's forthcoming 2024 manifesto imposes limitations that restrict policy flexibility, citing strict commitments on taxation, fiscal rules, and Britain’s relationship with the EU customs union and single market. One government insider suggested that while adjustments could be made within these parameters, the current manifesto does not fully reflect Prime Minister Burnham’s broader policy ambitions.

Supporters of an early vote are reportedly buoyed by Labour’s narrow two-point lead in the polls over Reform, viewing the present political environment as favourable. Nevertheless, several have cautioned that Burnham would only consider calling an election if the ongoing crisis in the Middle East stabilizes, which could ease energy costs and allow the government to showcase tangible policy achievements.

A senior government source acknowledged a range of opinions within the administration on whether to hold an early election but noted that Labour would be unwise not to “contemplate all scenarios” as they prepare for the next electoral contest.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.