Farmers in England and Wales are warning of potential milk shortages and higher prices later this year due to the ongoing drought and heatwaves affecting both dairy production and vegetable crops. The Met Office reported that July was provisionally the driest on record for these regions, with prolonged heat and low rainfall creating challenging conditions across the agricultural sector.

Dairy farmers have faced significant heat stress on their herds, resulting in reduced milk yields. According to the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) Dairy Board chair Ian Harvey, many producers have resorted to feeding winter forage and costly supplementary feeds to maintain production and animal welfare. Milk output has declined by 18.5 million litres so far this year compared to earlier surpluses. Harvey cautioned that without sustained rainfall in the coming weeks, feed shortages and increased costs during winter are likely.

Vegetable growers have also voiced concerns, particularly about root crops commonly featured in traditional meals such as potatoes, parsnips, carrots, and sprouts. Organic vegetable producer Luke King noted that limited irrigation options for many root crop growers make them especially vulnerable to ongoing dry and hot conditions, which may reduce yields. While he did not anticipate immediate shortages on supermarket shelves, King warned that supply could tighten and result in price increases by the end of the year.

Potato farmers are expecting smaller and more misshapen tubers due to the heat, though the taste remains unaffected, according to Cornwall-based grower Jeremy Oatey. Meanwhile, east coast Scotland farmer Alan Stevens reported that shifting weather patterns already disrupted his sprout harvests last year, with crops maturing prematurely. He highlighted the difficulties that climate change and weather extremes pose for agricultural planning.

Agricultural expert Oliver Morrison emphasized that unlike salad vegetables, which Britain largely imports, staples such as potatoes, parsnips, and sprouts are primarily homegrown, so their prices are at particular risk. He explained that potatoes destined for Christmas consumption are typically planted in spring and harvested in early autumn, primarily in East Anglia and Lincolnshire—areas facing significant water stress this season. Lincolnshire, also a key sprout-producing region, may see reduced crop size, while parsnips grown in Norfolk Sands, the Fens, and Nottinghamshire could yield fewer marketable roots due to dry soil conditions.

Gavin Lane, president of the Country Land and Business Association, which represents some 28,000 farmers, described 2026 as one of the worst harvest years in recent memory. He cited a combination of a saturated winter followed by summer drought, leaving wheat crops stunted and some fields not worth harvesting. Lane urged government investment to enhance water infrastructure and build resilience within the farming sector, noting that while farmers have adapted repeatedly to challenging conditions, their capacity to respond has limits without proper support.