Sudan is experiencing a worsening humanitarian crisis as drought triggered by El Niño intensifies severe hunger across the country, compounding the effects of ongoing conflict that erupted in 2023. Farmers and livestock herders in regions such as North Kordofan, Darfur, and Gedaref are facing unprecedented challenges due to critically low rainfall during the peak agricultural season.
According to data from the US Geological Survey, rainfall between July and September was the lowest recorded in several decades in key agricultural states. North Darfur experienced its driest conditions since 1984, North Kordofan since 1990, and Gedaref since 1981. This parched weather is undermining rain-fed farming, which forms the backbone of Sudan's food production.
The International Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a UN-backed global hunger monitor, highlighted on October 12 that the risk of famine is increasing in conflict-affected areas due to the drought. The IPC had previously reported in June that 5.1 million Sudanese were facing severe hunger, noting the situation might have improved with the November-December harvest. However, the new drought conditions are expected to elevate food insecurity levels again.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) projects a steep rise in hunger, estimating that an additional 350,000 people could experience severe food shortage by the end of 2026, with that number climbing to 1.2 million more by August 2027. The WFP’s Sudan program lead, Samuel Clendon, emphasized that Darfur and the Kordofan region remain the most affected areas.
Local farmers report significant crop failures. Mariam Omar, a smallholder near Um Rawaba in North Kordofan, described this year’s conditions as “terrible,” noting withered crops struggling to survive in dry, sandy soil. Large-scale farmer and sesame trader Mohammed Abdelrahman estimated that roughly 40 percent of arable land in his area would yield no harvest, as many farmers returning from displacement are forced to cultivate drought-stricken land.
The drought has also severely impacted livestock health. In the El Obeid market, the capital of North Kordofan, cattle are visibly malnourished, departing from their usual robust condition during this season. Livestock trader Siragaldeen Abdellateef pointed to scarcity and inflation driven by a rapidly depreciating Sudanese pound as factors further worsening the livelihoods of herders and traders.
Aid organizations face significant challenges in addressing rising food insecurity. The WFP, which is prioritizing assistance to the five million most vulnerable people, admits it cannot reach everyone in need due to funding shortfalls and security constraints. Rations have already been reduced in some locations, such as Tawila camp in Darfur, where about 700,000 displaced individuals reside. Carl Skau, acting WFP executive director, warned that the simultaneous decline of aid and agricultural output is a “recipe for disaster.” As of mid-October, the WFP had secured $276 million for Sudan operations—less than half of the previous year’s budget—and requires an additional $134 million to respond adequately to the drought’s escalating effects.
The convergence of prolonged conflict and extreme weather has deepened Sudan’s humanitarian emergency, with drought-driven crop failures, livestock losses, and funding shortages threatening to accelerate the country's food crisis in the coming months.