Schools across Dubai reopened this week, signaling a critical moment for the emirate as it seeks to sustain its appeal to affluent expatriate families amid ongoing regional tensions linked to the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The resumption of in-person classes follows nearly six months of disruptions caused by missile and drone attacks launched by Iran against Gulf countries, including the UAE.
Dubai’s international private school sector, which includes prestigious overseas branches such as Harrow and Queen Elizabeth’s School, had experienced rapid growth in recent years, fueled by a prewar boom attracting professionals from around the world. These institutions, reliant on foreign students and capital, view the return of yellow school buses and full classrooms as signs of renewed normalcy.
Major operators in the sector report that while enrollment remains generally strong, some schools have fallen short of their prewar targets. Waiting lists have shortened, and the influx of new expatriate students—particularly from key markets like the United Kingdom—has slowed. Taaleem Group, a Dubai-listed education provider, noted that nine of its 15 premium schools reached full capacity as the academic year began. Meanwhile, GEMS Education, supported by Brookfield and recognized as one of the largest private school groups in the UAE, reported nearly meeting its enrollment goals for the term.
Dino Varkey, GEMS' chief executive, described the current outlook as a growth scenario, though less robust than the surge seen in the past three years following the COVID-19 pandemic. He highlighted a shortfall at GEMS’ School of Research and Innovation—its flagship campus with annual fees around £40,000—which welcomed 650 new students this term compared to a prewar target of 900. Varkey attributed some of the fluctuation to the mobility of the group’s affluent, globally mobile families, many of whom temporarily left the UAE during the peak of the conflict. According to him, approximately half of the students who left have since returned, with new enrollees increasingly drawn from within the UAE or entering the local school system for the first time.
Taaleem’s chief executive Alan Williamson reported that Harrow Dubai opened with about 400 new pupils, surpassing its target of 350. Overall, the group enrolled close to 19,500 students across its premium schools, just shy of the planned 19,900.
The education sector in Dubai was among the hardest hit after Iran increased its missile and drone strikes following the escalation of hostilities in February. The emirate, which serves nearly 400,000 school-age children—mostly from expatriate families—experienced an exodus as security fears grew. Thousands of families temporarily left the city, forcing extended periods of remote learning and disrupting international examination schedules.
Although no attacks have occurred since May, the impact of the conflict remains tangible. The UAE’s defense ministry recently intercepted an Iranian drone over territorial waters following renewed exchanges of fire between Washington and Tehran. The U.S. embassy in the region has also issued updated security advisories, warning of potential escalation.
Dubai’s population, closely monitored as an economic indicator by real estate and retail sectors, has reportedly rebounded after dropping by approximately 61,000 in March during the height of the conflict. Still, some analysts caution that the lingering perception of instability could dampen future foreign investment in sectors reliant on expatriate populations.
Williamson acknowledged these concerns, noting uncertainty among some international school groups about investing further in Dubai’s education market. At the same time, local school leaders and families express cautious optimism. Varkey commented on a growing acceptance of the situation among residents, emphasizing that the reopening signals confidence in the city’s safety and a commitment to returning to routine life despite ongoing regional tensions.