Since 1995, Darwin has experienced notable variability in its wet season patterns, influenced in part by El Niño events, according to observations from local waterfowl hunting and conservation enthusiasts. Bart Irwin, who returned to Darwin in 1995 and has closely tracked wet season trends and waterfowl populations, shared insights into how these climatic factors affect goose breeding and wetland conditions in the region.

Irwin noted that the wet seasons during the late 1990s were among the wettest on record, including years affected by El Niño. Typically, El Niño events are associated with delayed onset and reduced rainfall in northern Australia due to shifts in atmospheric pressure. This is measured through the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which tracks air pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. In an El Niño phase, Tahiti tends to experience lower air pressure while Darwin’s air pressure increases, often signaling drier conditions for the region.

Despite this climatological trend, Irwin’s data over the past few decades paints a more complex picture. Since 1995, there have been 10 El Niño years, yet rainfall during these periods has ranged from average to record levels. For example, the 1994/95 and 1996/97 wet seasons recorded exceptionally high rainfall. Conversely, only two El Niño years—2014/15 and 2018/19—were characterized by below-average rainfall. Interestingly, the 2019 season saw only 1,150 millimeters of rain in Darwin but nonetheless supported exceptional goose breeding in the Daly region. Wildlife managers expressed surprise at the resilience of waterfowl species, with population estimates doubling from approximately 725,000 in 2017 to 1.5 million in 2019.

This information has informed recent policy decisions by the Finocchiaro government regarding waterfowl hunting regulations in the Northern Territory. Despite concerns raised by some, including shadow environment ministers, about potential negative impacts of an anticipated El Niño on waterfowl breeding, the government maintained its stance on hunting bag limits. The current regulations set a limit of seven geese and ten ducks per hunter, with these limits established through to 2030.

Irwin commended the government’s approach as measured and evidence-based, noting that waterfowl populations have demonstrated strong breeding capacity even under varied climatic conditions. He highlighted the importance of balancing sustainable hunting practices with the conservation of wetland ecosystems in the region.