Since his return to the presidency in 2024, President Donald Trump’s support among working-class white voters—long regarded as a cornerstone of his political coalition—has shown signs of significant erosion, particularly regarding his management of the economy. New polling data reveal a marked decline in approval among this demographic, raising concerns for Republican prospects heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
In the 2018 midterms, despite broader Republican losses in the House, working-class white voters without college degrees remained supportive of Mr. Trump’s economic policies by wide margins. Exit polls at that time indicated approval ratings of approximately 66 percent in this group. However, recent surveys from various polling organizations including Fox News, CBS, NPR/PBS/Marist, CNN, and The New York Times/Siena College show disapproval rates ranging from 57 percent to more than 60 percent among the same cohort, particularly on issues related to inflation, the cost of living, and overall economic management.
Republican strategists acknowledge the risk of this shift. John McLaughlin, a pollster who has long worked with Mr. Trump, described diminished enthusiasm among white working-class voters as “critical” to the party’s chances of maintaining control of Congress. He also noted backsliding within working-class Black and Hispanic voters who had supported Mr. Trump in 2024. Meanwhile, some Republicans expressed concern that Mr. Trump’s focus on foreign affairs, such as the war in Iran, combined with persistently high prices for essentials like gas and groceries, have intensified economic anxieties. Examples cited include individual voters like Tim Spencer from Iowa, who cited rising fuel costs and the president’s “increasingly erratic behavior” as factors in withdrawing support.
On the other side, Democratic strategists view this shift as an opportunity. Although the Democratic brand remains weak among many working-class white voters—particularly on cultural and immigration issues—polls suggest a growing openness to Democratic congressional candidates, with a recent survey showing a 44 percent leaning among white non-college voters, up from 30 percent in 2018. In focus groups, Democrats have found increasing willingness among some segments, especially women, to express dissatisfaction with Mr. Trump’s economic stewardship. Eva Kemp, a Democratic strategist, noted that these voters’ “disappointment” has become more “visceral,” signaling a potential opening for Democrats in traditionally Republican regions such as Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
MAGA Inc., Mr. Trump’s super PAC, has responded by emphasizing the benefits of his 2022 tax cut package for workers, pushing back against Democratic criticism that frames the president as dismissive of everyday economic concerns. The group also highlights Democratic opposition to certain economic measures, seeking to maintain loyalty among disaffected voters.
Analysts agree that economic issues will be paramount in shaping voter behavior in 2026. Observers from both parties see a potential realignment underway, where working-class white voters, once reliably supportive of Mr. Trump’s economic message, are now reevaluating their political calculus. How effectively Mr. Trump—and the Republican Party more broadly—can reconnect with this base may prove decisive in upcoming elections. As veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse summarized, the party’s fate “will live and die” with Mr. Trump’s ability to energize a demographic that currently appears increasingly disillusioned.