Europe faces a precarious energy situation ahead of the upcoming winter as it continues to grapple with the fallout from multiple international crises. The continent is still adjusting to disruptions following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, which severely curtailed access to Russian gas supplies. More recently, the conflict in Iran has further unsettled energy markets by impacting oil flows and causing a partial lockdown of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which account for roughly 20% of global LNG supply.

These combined shocks have contributed to a spike in European gas prices, with August prices at the continent’s trading hubs nearly doubling compared to the same month in 2025. Elevated summer prices have discouraged energy operators from purchasing and storing additional gas ahead of winter, as many anticipated that the Strait of Hormuz — a critical transit point for Gulf energy exports — would reopen in time to inject locked LNG volumes into the markets. The delayed flow has left European gas storage at approximately 69% capacity, significantly lower than the more than 80% levels recorded at the same time last year.

European countries typically consume between 250 billion and 260 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas during an average winter, according to estimates based on data from the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. Roughly 200 bcm of this volume is supplied through production and imports, while the remaining 50 to 60 bcm is drawn from storage reserves. Although current stocks include over 70 bcm, a particularly cold winter could increase demand by up to 25 bcm, straining the system further. Additionally, weather-related spikes in LNG consumption could create heightened competition between Europe and Asia, both heavily dependent on LNG imports during peak winter months.

Amid these uncertainties, European energy observers are closely monitoring the ongoing El Niño weather phenomenon, which involves elevated sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Historically, El Niño events can lead to warmer-than-average conditions in early autumn and winter across parts of Europe, potentially alleviating some heating demand. However, the latter stages of El Niño winters have also been associated with colder and snowier weather, underscoring the degree of unpredictability.

Experts caution that relying on weather patterns to steer energy strategy is risky and leaves the continent vulnerable. The challenges posed by geopolitical disruptions and market volatility highlight the need for more robust, long-term approaches to securing Europe’s energy supply beyond speculative hopes for milder weather.