Sri Lanka faces mounting challenges as the El Niño weather phenomenon threatens to disrupt water availability and agricultural production, particularly rice cultivation, a staple food and economic mainstay. Experts warn that the country is not adequately prepared to manage the increasingly erratic weather patterns linked to climate change and global warming, which are expected to cause more frequent water shortages and crop damage in the coming years.
El Niño episodes have historically led to both droughts and heavy rainfall in the region, creating a complex environment for farmers. While intense rains can replenish water supplies, they also pose a risk of flooding rice fields, especially during the harvest season, causing significant crop losses. In response to these risks, Sri Lanka’s Agriculture Department has advised that paddy cultivation should be completed by mid-October to help crops withstand anticipated heavy rains during the Maha season, which begins in November.
Retired agriculture expert Pedris Appo emphasized the need for a proactive government strategy to address these challenges, calling for an urgent dialogue between authorities and specialists to develop response plans. Despite the recurring nature of El Niño, Sri Lanka has largely remained reactive rather than anticipatory in its approach to climate-induced weather disruptions.
A recent United Nations report highlights the onset of the 2026-2027 El Niño episode across Asia and the Pacific, warning of escalating humanitarian needs. The report underscores the intersection of El Niño with existing vulnerabilities such as food insecurity, high dependence on imports, and rising costs for fuel and agricultural inputs. For Sri Lanka, the report specifically notes that the wettest periods, from October through February, could see intensified rainfall due to El Niño, potentially exacerbating flood and landslide risks in vulnerable regions.
Local voices reflect these concerns. Residents in mountainous areas express anxiety over unusual rain patterns and the threat of disasters similar to those seen during Cyclone Ditwah in late 2023, which caused more than 600 deaths in Sri Lanka. The lack of safe evacuation options in landslide-prone areas remains a pressing issue.
Experts also question the sustainability of Sri Lanka’s water-intensive rice-centric agriculture in the face of changing climatic conditions. Suggestions have emerged to diversify crop production to less water-dependent and more resilient varieties, though political and cultural factors may hinder shifts away from traditional rice farming.
Fitch Ratings has flagged El Niño as a potential source of economic disruption for vulnerable countries like Sri Lanka, noting that environmental stresses could exacerbate fiscal pressures, inflation, and external liquidity challenges. Peradeniya University Crop Science Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe highlighted that agricultural output alone may be insufficient to meet the country’s food needs, emphasizing the necessity of government preparedness for increased food imports to mitigate shortfalls.
As climate variability intensifies, Sri Lanka’s reliance on traditional water storage systems — such as ancient tanks now diminished by silt accumulation — further complicates efforts to secure water resources. Calls have been made for government initiatives to clean and restore these tanks and to promote modern rainwater harvesting techniques.
Overall, experts caution that the nation needs a comprehensive and forward-looking approach to climate adaptation rather than episodic responses, to safeguard food security and water resources amid the persistent threat posed by El Niño and climate change.