A strong El Niño event has begun, bringing significant impacts to winter weather across North America, with one notable effect being the increased scarcity of outdoor ice skating rinks in regions where they have traditionally thrived. This development poses challenges for communities accustomed to winter activities such as skating, tobogganing, and skiing.
Since 2013, a citizen science initiative known as RinkWatch, managed by Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, has gathered data from over 1,800 outdoor rinks throughout Canada and the northern United States. The project monitors rink conditions, which serve as a tangible measure of local winter climate variations. Analysis of RinkWatch data shows that maintaining a skateable rink typically requires daily average temperatures below -5 degrees Celsius, colder than the standard freezing point of water.
The current El Niño, the strongest recorded in recent history, is expected to elevate winter temperatures in many traditional rink-making areas, reducing opportunities for natural ice formation. Rink managers are likely to encounter intermittent warm spells and increased precipitation, which can degrade skating surfaces. Reliable ice conditions this winter are most probable at higher elevations, such as in parts of Montana and Colorado, and in northern regions like Alberta and Saskatchewan. These patterns mirror those observed during the previous record-breaking El Niño of 2015-16.
El Niño events occur approximately every five years due to weakened Pacific trade winds, which allow warm water from the western Pacific to shift eastward toward South America’s western coastline. This redistribution of ocean heat disrupts atmospheric circulation, resulting in altered weather patterns worldwide. For North America, the phenomenon shifts the jet stream northward, permitting warmer, moister air masses to move into areas accustomed to colder conditions. Concurrently, it contributes to extreme weather elsewhere, such as intensified droughts and wildfires in tropical regions.
Scientists highlight El Niño events as a preview of the climate conditions expected in coming decades amid ongoing global warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The current event is anticipated to temporarily raise global average temperatures by about 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius, simulating mid-21st-century climate scenarios. By the 2050s, average January temperatures in many cities traditionally known for outdoor winter sports—including several National Hockey League (NHL) markets such as Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, New York, and Toronto—may become too warm to support natural ice rinks. Only a few, including Edmonton, Winnipeg, and possibly Minneapolis, may retain suitable conditions.
Although the reduction of accessible outdoor skating spots represents a relatively mild consequence compared with broader climate risks, it carries cultural, social, and health implications. Outdoor rinks often serve as vital community spaces where children and neighbors gather during the winter months, fostering physical activity and social cohesion.
While outdoor rinks may return in colder winters after this El Niño event subsides, climate projections suggest they could largely disappear over the longer term without substantial global efforts to reduce emissions. The current season offers a final opportunity for some communities to experience a traditional winter pastime that has been a cherished part of North American life for generations.