Hong Kong is expected to face stronger storms and a warmer, wetter winter this year as the El Niño weather pattern intensifies, according to local environmental groups and meteorologists. The phenomenon, which raises sea surface temperatures and increases atmospheric moisture, is projected to increase the severity of tropical cyclones affecting the region.
Friends of the Earth (HK) highlighted that typhoons approaching Hong Kong could become more powerful under these conditions. The Hong Kong Observatory previously forecasted that four to seven tropical cyclones could pass within 500 kilometers of the city in 2026, with some intensifying into super typhoons due to El Niño’s effects.
The city has experienced a steady rise in average temperatures, increasing about 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade since 1885. This trend, combined with higher humidity, is likely to contribute to more frequent scorching days and warm nights, elevating the risk of heat-related illnesses such as heatstroke. Friends of the Earth also warned that heavy rainfall could overwhelm the city’s drainage systems, causing flooding in coastal and low-lying areas exacerbated by rising sea levels. The organization cited data from the Observatory indicating that cumulative rainfall from January through July 26 reached 1,788.4 millimeters, exceeding the average by nearly 369 millimeters.
The prolonged wet conditions are expected to destabilize slopes, increasing landslide risks, while hot and humid weather could accelerate bacterial growth and mosquito breeding, raising additional public health concerns. University of Hong Kong research estimates that approximately 300 heat-related deaths occur annually in the city, surpassing fatalities from typhoons, storms, and lightning combined.
Friends of the Earth’s chief policy research officer, Jeffrey Hung Oi-shing, emphasized the need for proactive preparedness measures. He urged authorities and citizens to integrate heatwave and storm readiness into urban planning and community support systems, rather than relying solely on reactive responses such as black rainstorm warnings.
Hong Kong experienced its first typhoon of the season recently when Typhoon Noui came within 80 kilometers of the city, prompting a No. 9 signal. Shaun Chi-ming, a visiting professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and former director of the Observatory, noted that climate change combined with a strengthening El Niño is likely to push global temperatures to unprecedented levels in 2026 and 2027. He explained that a super El Niño could develop between October and December and potentially persist through the winter, leading to above-normal rainfall and higher temperatures.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, global mean temperatures for 2026–2030 are expected to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 average). This rise is anticipated to result in severe droughts, floods, and food security challenges worldwide.
In Hong Kong, experts predict extreme weather events such as heatwaves, intense rainstorms, typhoons, and storm surges will become more frequent and severe, underscoring the urgency for comprehensive preparedness and resilience planning in the city.