El Nino is expected to strengthen further before reaching its peak in December, potentially making it one of the most intense events recorded since the mid-20th century, according to the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The weather phenomenon, which influences global climate patterns, is projected to drive higher temperatures and alter rainfall distributions across numerous regions.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO highlighted that the current El Nino is firmly established and continuing to intensify. Forecasts based on a consensus from 13 leading meteorological centres indicate a near 100% probability that the event will persist through February 2027. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—the critical area for El Nino—are expected to rise to record levels between October and December 2026.
The WMO reported that ocean temperatures in this region have already increased from 1.6°C above average in June to 2.5°C above average in August, and are predicted to reach approximately 3.7°C above the long-term norm by the end of the year. This would surpass the previous record anomaly of 2.6°C set during the strong El Nino events of 2015 and 2016. The phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to twelve months, affects global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. Its counterpart, La Nina, represents an inverse pattern, with periods of neutral conditions occurring between these extremes.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo noted that El Nino does not create new planetary heat but releases warmth stored in the ocean, which is currently at its highest recorded temperature. “The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” she explained.
The intensified El Nino is expected to exacerbate the impacts of human-induced climate change by driving above-average temperatures worldwide and causing shifts in rainfall patterns that elevate the risk of droughts and floods in different regions. Early effects are already being observed in parts of Central America, where drought conditions are severely affecting agriculture and wildlife.
Previous El Nino episodes have contributed to record global temperatures, including the 2015-2016 event linked to significant climate anomalies worldwide. The last El Nino influence helped make 2023 the second-hottest year on record, with 2024 on track to surpass that as the warmest, at approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels dating from 1850 to 1900.
As the phenomenon intensifies, meteorologists and climate experts emphasize the importance of monitoring its evolving impacts on ecosystems, economies, and communities globally.