Iran’s leadership appears emboldened amid ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf, defying expectations of internal weakening despite economic challenges linked to the protracted conflict, according to officials and experts monitoring the regime. The Iranian government has intensified domestic crackdowns, including executions of critics, while maintaining military operations that reinforce its control over the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.
Nearly all of Iran’s top leaders have backgrounds rooted in security and military institutions, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has played a central role in suppressing protests and coordinating proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Prominent figures within the current leadership include Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and former IRGC commander; Ahmad Vahidi, IRGC commander-in-chief who supported the harsh response to women’s rights demonstrations in 2022; and Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei known for advocating escalated responses to U.S. and Israeli actions.
Civilian officials like President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have been largely sidelined as the war continues to reshape the political landscape, highlighting a shift toward military-dominated governance. This contrasts with assertions from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who claimed that regime change would bring pragmatists to power more amenable to American demands. Instead, observers note that while the current leadership may be less overtly religiously extreme, it remains resolute and willing to use force.
Trump’s confrontational rhetoric and threats, including rhetoric about destroying Iran’s civilization, have reportedly reinforced hard-liner narratives of an existential struggle against the West, undercutting moderate factions who previously engaged in nuclear diplomacy. Analysts caution that the younger generation around Khamenei faces significant hurdles in rebuilding Iran’s war-strained economy and improving domestic conditions.
The Trump administration’s release of frozen Iranian assets and imposition of financial benefits prior to his departure could provide some economic respite, potentially aiding the new leadership. However, the regime’s internal dynamics remain complex, particularly regarding the role of Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son, who is believed to be managing key decisions indirectly while reportedly staying out of public view. The upcoming funeral of Ali Khamenei is expected to serve as an indicator of the regime’s confidence in Mojtaba’s influence and health.
Governance under the current leadership follows a collective decision-making structure bound by directives from the Supreme Leader, placing firm limits on negotiations with the United States, notably ruling out substantive dialogue on Iran’s nuclear program before a lasting ceasefire is established. This cohort grew up in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution and the hostage crisis, enduring regional conflicts such as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, shaping their worldview and tactics, including retaliatory strikes against U.S. allies and leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz to exert economic pressure.
Despite a ceasefire announcement in April, Iran remains prepared to resume military engagements if necessary. This posture has enabled Tehran to extract economic concessions while projecting a narrative of resilience and victory domestically. A European official familiar with the situation said, “They are brimming with confidence. They not only survived, they rediscovered the Strait of Hormuz as a big lever, and they really think that they can dictate terms.”