Energy analysts warn that despite a recent agreement to end the conflict involving Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, high oil and gasoline prices, along with ongoing supply challenges, are unlikely to improve immediately.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gasoline supplies typically transit, has been effectively closed for over three months due to the war. As a result, numerous crude oil shipments have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to move safely through the waterway.

Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy, said the process of restoring normal oil flow will take time. "It’s going to take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place," Evans noted, emphasizing the need to rebuild confidence for personnel to return and for production assets to restart operations.

The initial steps involve clearing the backlog of tankers currently stranded in the strait before new vessels can enter, load cargo, and transport it to refineries. Evans pointed out that oil tankers travel slowly and that the logistics chain—from the strait to final delivery points via refining—spans several months.

Compounding the delay, some Middle Eastern oil producers implemented shut-ins, halting extraction when storage capacities were reached during the crisis. Resuming production after these shutdowns is not immediate and requires careful ramp-up to avoid operational risks.

While the deal to end the Iran war and reopen the strait marks a significant development, experts caution that market rebalancing and price stabilization are likely to unfold gradually over the coming months rather than occurring swiftly.