Despite the recent announcement of an agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, experts caution that the global energy supply is unlikely to recover swiftly, with oil and gasoline prices remaining elevated for months. The strait, a crucial maritime passage responsible for about 20% of the world’s oil and gasoline shipments prior to the conflict, has been largely inaccessible due to security concerns and ongoing instability.

Energy analysts emphasize that resuming normal operations involves a complex and time-consuming process. Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy, noted that confidence, insurance coverage, and personnel deployment are necessary to reactivate stalled production and shipping assets. "It’s going to take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place," Evans said.

Following the deal’s announcement late Sunday, oil prices fell slightly but remained substantially above pre-war levels. Brent crude dropped $3.45 to $83.89 per barrel, and U.S. benchmark crude fell $4.03 to $80.85 per barrel, compared to roughly $70 per barrel prior to the conflict. The decline reflects cautious optimism but does not signal an immediate return to stable supply.

Ships carrying crude oil have been immobilized in the Persian Gulf for over three months, unable to navigate safely through the strait. The challenge of clearing this backlog is considerable. Vessels must wait for extended secure windows to transit, load, and unload before new tankers can cycle through, a process made slower by the inherently low speeds of oil tankers.

Moreover, some oil-producing countries implemented shut-ins—temporary halts or reductions in extraction—due to storage constraints during the crisis. Reversing these shutdowns can be a gradual and technically demanding endeavor. Alan Gelder, senior vice president at Wood Mackenzie, highlighted regional disparities in recovery speed. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with alternative pipelines or routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, are expected to resume production more rapidly. Conversely, Iraq faces more significant hurdles due to larger shut-ins and more challenging fields, potentially requiring up to a year to restore output.

The energy sector also faces longer-term obstacles. Investment in infrastructure and production stalled sharply amid the crisis, and the resumption of capital projects will likely lag behind the ceasefire. Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, pointed to the need for a stable and durable reopening of the strait before sustained recovery efforts can proceed. "Countries won’t restart production until they know the ceasefire will last more than 30 or 60 days," Sternoff said, noting uncertainties about what exactly “open” means and how quickly trapped shipments will be evacuated.

Overall, while the ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represent significant progress, experts agree that restoring the global energy supply system to pre-conflict levels will require patience and cautious coordination over the coming months.