As the United States marks its 250th anniversary, recent polls reveal a growing sense of public pessimism about the country’s political future, largely attributed to deepening polarization. Experts warn that this entrenched division is undermining confidence domestically and weakening Washington’s capacity to provide consistent leadership on the global stage.

A survey conducted by Elon University in North Carolina found that 68 percent of American respondents expect political divisions to worsen over the next half-century. Moreover, 64 percent expressed little or no confidence that U.S. political institutions will consistently make sound decisions during that period. Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, described this long-standing polarization as “deep and entrenched,” noting that it has persisted for more than one generation, with few seeing a clear resolution ahead.

Similar findings were reported in an April survey by The Associated Press and the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, where 27 percent of participants identified political interests or values as the primary source of national division. Other factors cited included leadership, government elites, and economic interests, each noted by 14 percent of respondents. Meanwhile, a Gallup poll released last month indicated only 19 percent of Americans believed the nation’s founders would be satisfied with the country’s trajectory, while 77 percent anticipated their disappointment—a number that has risen steadily since 2001.

Academic analysts emphasize that this public disillusionment reflects a broader structural crisis rather than a mere temporary shift in sentiment. He Yun, associate professor at Hunan University and researcher at Tsinghua University’s Belt and Road Institute, highlighted declines in trust toward political institutions, which are increasingly seen as unrepresentative of wider public interests. She also pointed to growing social fragmentation along partisan, ethnic, and class lines, compounded by economic challenges such as income inequality, limited access to education, rising housing costs, and decreased intergenerational mobility.

Chen Hong, director of the Asia-Pacific Studies Center at East China Normal University, noted that partisan rivalry has exacerbated social divisions, with political polarization extending beyond typical democratic competition. According to Chen, deeper structural issues—including wealth disparities, persistent racial tensions, and eroding public trust—underlie the political strife. He also cited the current administration’s confrontational style as intensifying these divisions, moving political conflict into disputes over the norms and rules governing elections, judicial independence, and media credibility.

He Yun underlined that healthy democracy requires respect for established rules, acceptance of election results, and recognition of political opponents’ legitimacy. Instead, U.S. politics has become a battleground over these foundational principles themselves, she said.

The domestic polarization also complicates U.S. foreign policy. Chen pointed out that Washington’s increasing use of tariffs as leverage and reliance on national security justifications for policy decisions reflect a short-term, transactional approach toward allies and trade partners. A recent Pew Research Center survey involving 36 countries reported deteriorating global perceptions of the United States, tied to apprehensions about American democracy and foreign policy directions.

He Yun warned that rising unpredictability in U.S. international engagement may prompt allies to reduce dependence on Washington across sectors such as security, technology, and supply chains. This volatility could further hinder stable global governance and coordination on critical issues including climate change, trade, public health, and financial stability. She predicted an extended period of international uncertainty and mistrust as a result.

Despite its enduring influence, the United States’ role in shaping the global order is expected to face growing constraints due to internal divisions, experts concluded.