As world leaders prepare to convene in Ankara next week for the NATO summit, Turkey’s domestic political tensions and democratic backsliding are coming under increased scrutiny. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to use the event to project an image of strength and indispensability. However, critics, including Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), warn that Erdoğan’s escalating repression threatens not only Turkey’s democracy but also the broader interests of NATO allies.

Turkey occupies a critical strategic position, controlling access to the Black Sea, bordering Syria, Iraq and Iran, and serving as a key player in regional security matters affecting Europe. Its military is among the largest within NATO, and its defense industry is increasingly integral to European security. Yet, these strengths stand alongside significant domestic challenges, including an economy beset by high inflation, officially reported above 30 percent, and declining public confidence. Millions of citizens report deteriorating living standards and a sense of insecurity.

According to Özel, these pressures have weakened Erdoğan’s political standing. The CHP secured major gains in the recent 2024 municipal elections, marking the party’s best performance since Erdoğan’s rise to power. Citizens dissatisfied with economic hardships, including pensioners struggling to pay rent and families facing food insecurity, contributed to this shift. The opposition’s success, however, has been met with intensified government repression.

Since March 2025, Erdoğan’s government has imprisoned key opposition figures, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP’s presidential candidate, on charges widely perceived as politically motivated, such as corruption and terrorism-related accusations. Following this move, authorities detained or imprisoned over 30 opposition mayors. Most recently, a court annulled Özel’s election as CHP leader, reinstating a former party chair who has repeatedly lost elections against Erdoğan.

Özel describes these actions as efforts to create a “loyal opposition” that participates in elections without posing a genuine challenge to Erdoğan’s rule. He warns that Turkey’s political system is trending toward authoritarianism resembling models seen in Russia and Belarus. This erosion of democratic norms, he argues, undermines Turkey’s legitimacy and predictability as a NATO partner. Turkey’s foreign policy, he adds, is increasingly shaped by Erdoğan’s need to maintain domestic power, resulting in fluctuating allegiances among the United States, Russia and China.

Beyond geopolitical concerns, Özel highlights the risk of social unrest fueled by economic hardship and the suppression of democratic opposition. He cautions that internal upheaval in Turkey could destabilize Europe’s security, disrupt energy routes, and have wider consequences for the Middle East and NATO’s southern flank.

While emphasizing that Turkey’s political future should be determined by its own citizens without external imposition, Özel stresses that Turkish democrats seek peaceful change through electoral and civic means, despite facing pressure and repression.

As Erdoğan positions himself as an indispensable ally ahead of the NATO summit, opposition voices urge NATO members to recognize the risks posed by Turkey’s democratic regression. They warn that prioritizing short-term geopolitical convenience by legitimizing authoritarian tendencies may ultimately undermine long-term stability and security.