A decade after surviving a failed coup attempt that shook Turkey’s capital and left more than 250 dead, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is poised to take a central role as Turkey hosts a critical NATO summit in Ankara next week. The two-day meeting comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tension, with the alliance grappling with challenges including Russia’s aggression, ongoing military support for Ukraine, and instability in the Middle East.

Once viewed with suspicion by Western allies over concerns about authoritarianism and human rights abuses, Erdogan has repositioned Turkey as a key regional power within NATO. The country’s strategic location, commanding the second-largest military in the alliance and controlling access to the Black Sea, has elevated its importance. Ankara’s ability to maintain diplomatic ties with both Moscow and Kyiv adds to its value, as does its expanding influence across the Middle East and Africa.

Turkey’s role as a mediator in regional conflicts has been prominent under Erdogan’s leadership. Ankara has played a central role in brokering the Black Sea grain deal and facilitating Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while also exerting influence in the Syrian conflict and Libya’s civil war. Erdogan’s engagement with groups such as Hamas, once a point of contention with Washington, has become an asset in shuttle diplomacy efforts.

The summit arrives amid pressure from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has pushed European NATO members to increase defense spending. Trump’s agreement to attend the summit was reportedly influenced by Erdogan’s hosting of the event, underscoring the Turkish leader’s enhanced standing within the alliance.

However, Erdogan’s domestic record remains controversial. In the weeks ahead of the summit, Turkish authorities detained over 200 individuals in security operations and banned demonstrations in Ankara, justifying the measures as necessary for security. Human rights groups and opposition figures have criticized these actions as efforts to suppress dissent. Independent journalists were also largely barred from covering the event.

The ruling government’s crackdown extends to political opponents. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has faced significant setbacks, including the imprisonment of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, on corruption charges. The annulment of the party’s 2023 leadership election and the removal of its leader, Ozgur Ozel, have been denounced by the opposition as politically motivated, though Turkish prosecutors cite alleged electoral irregularities. Western governments have largely refrained from public criticism.

Experts note that Erdogan has consolidated power by transforming state institutions, overseeing mass detentions, and centralizing authority since the 2016 coup attempt. Despite economic challenges and rising inflation that have dented his popularity, Erdogan remains entrenched politically, bolstered by a loyal conservative base and tight control over the media.

Analysts highlight a strategic link between Erdogan’s international ambitions and domestic authoritarianism. Turkey’s growing role as a mediator and power broker on the global stage serves both as a signal of its geopolitical weight and as a shield for internal political consolidation. This dynamic has fostered a complex tolerance among Western governments, which weigh Turkey’s strategic contributions against concerns over democratic backsliding.

Looking ahead, speculation persists that Erdogan might seek to advance the presidential election, originally scheduled for 2028, to strengthen his hold on power. Concurrently, he has revived peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has initiated disarmament steps, possibly driven by domestic political calculations.

Although Turkey’s continued balancing act between the West and Russia raises concerns, Ankara’s reluctance to openly criticize Moscow complicates its NATO ties. Observers warn that a significant shift toward Russia would represent a serious setback for the alliance and its Western partners, underscoring Turkey’s pivotal yet unpredictable role in regional and global security dynamics.