Estonia is repositioning its military forces closer to the Russian border and acquiring long-range weaponry in response to growing security concerns over potential Russian aggression beyond Ukraine. The Baltic state, a frontline member of NATO, is implementing a new “active defence” strategy aimed at deterring and responding rapidly to any incursion.

Military and intelligence officials in Estonia do not currently anticipate a full-scale war with NATO within the next two years. However, they warn that Russia may undertake a smaller, opportunistic attack intended to test the alliance’s collective defence commitments. Estonian officials argue that existing deterrence measures are insufficient to prevent such a scenario.

As part of this strategic shift, the Estonian First Brigade, the country’s principal military unit, is relocating from its longstanding base in Tapa to Jõhvi, about 50 kilometers from the Russian border. New military facilities are under construction in Jõhvi and in the predominantly Russian-speaking city of Narva, the latter designed to house up to 1,000 troops in a crisis. The country’s defence spending has increased by 42% this year, reaching €2.4 billion, roughly 5.4% of GDP.

In terms of armaments, Estonia has acquired nine US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launcher systems capable of firing M57 ballistic missiles with ranges up to 300 kilometers, as well as nine South Korean Chunmoo rocket systems with similar capabilities. Officials note that this extends the country’s ability to conduct strikes deep inside Russian territory, including areas near St. Petersburg, about 260 kilometers from Estonia’s border.

For years, Estonia relied on a defence doctrine focused on rapid mobilisation of large conscript forces conducting guerrilla-style resistance in the country’s challenging terrain, designed to delay Russian forces until NATO reinforcements arrived. However, military leaders now consider this approach inadequate given Russia’s demonstrated willingness to absorb heavy casualties and hold seized territory at all costs, as seen in Ukraine.

Estonia’s standing army numbers approximately 4,200 active personnel, supported by a trained reserve force of up to 230,000, of whom nearly 40,000 can be rapidly deployed to pre-assigned units. The revised doctrine prioritizes “forward defence,” with forces prepared to contest territory immediately and conduct counterattacks behind enemy lines from the outset.

Officials particularly fear limited, provocative actions targeting Narva or other border areas designed to test NATO’s resolve without triggering a full-scale conflict. Such tactics could aim to fracture the alliance by presenting a fait accompli. NATO allies, including the United Kingdom, are increasing troop commitments to bolster Estonia’s defence posture; the UK plans to raise its presence from 800 to 1,200 soldiers by April.

While Estonia remains vigilant, officials acknowledge that the ongoing war in Ukraine constrains Russia’s military options. The security situation could deteriorate significantly if hostilities cease and Russian forces are redeployed to the Baltic region. In that event, the risk of a serious threat to Estonia and its NATO allies would increase sharply, underscoring the urgency behind Estonia’s current defence transformation.