Ethiopian federal forces entered Mekelle, the capital of the northern Tigray region, on Sunday after the withdrawal of regional authorities, marking a significant advance for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government amid renewed hostilities that erupted less than two weeks ago. The conflict is a continuation of the long-running tensions between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which previously fought a devastating war from 2020 to 2022 resulting in substantial casualties and widespread reports of atrocities.

The current fighting involves the ENDF clashing with the TPLF and an alliance of six armed opposition groups, known as the Alliance for Survival, formed last month with the objective of ousting Abiy and seeking constitutional reforms. Fighters from the Afar and Amhara regions have joined the coalition’s recent offensive, intensifying the conflict across northern Ethiopia. Meanwhile, the federal government has aligned with a breakaway faction of Tigrayan fighters who split from the TPLF.

Last week saw the Alliance for Survival push deeper into the Amhara and Afar regions; however, the TPLF announced late Saturday that it had temporarily vacated Mekelle to protect the population and maintain Tigrayan sovereignty, a decision that came after federal forces reportedly reclaimed control of Mekelle’s airport. Residents confirmed the presence of government troops in the city on Sunday.

The resurgence of violence follows months of escalating tensions characterized by federal drone strikes in Tigray, skirmishes in northern Ethiopia, and escalating rhetoric. The conflict reignited on September 23 when the TPLF seized several strategic locations including airports in Mekelle and the towns of Axum and Shire. The Tigrayan forces described their actions as defensive operations against what they termed federal invasion supported by drone and artillery assaults.

One critical strategic objective of the rebel alliance is disrupting the Addis Ababa-Djibouti highway, a vital trade route for landlocked Ethiopia, linking it to the port of Djibouti. Despite their advances, the road remains under federal control as of Sunday.

The conflict has raised concerns about regional spillover, with neighboring Eritrea playing a particularly complex role. Eritrea, which fought a war with Ethiopia from 1998 to 2000 and later allied with the Ethiopian government against the TPLF in the 2020 conflict, has recently moved closer to Tigrayan leadership. This shift is partly driven by Ethiopia’s ambitions for Red Sea access, near Eritrea’s port of Assab, located just 40 miles from the Ethiopian border. Diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea were severed last week amid escalating tensions. Ethiopian officials, including nuclear energy commissioner Abraham Baley, have warned Eritrea against intervention, while U.S. officials have called for restraint and respect for sovereignty.

Further complicating the regional dynamics, Eritrea maintains ties with Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, while Ethiopia is allied with the United Arab Emirates, a prominent investor. The ongoing civil war in Sudan adds another layer of instability, with analysts warning that renewed conflict in Ethiopia could intertwine with Sudan’s violence along their shared border.

International responses have included calls for mediation from global and regional figures. The African Union appointed former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to lead peace efforts, but the TPLF has criticized the AU’s perceived alignment with the Ethiopian federal government, raising concerns about the impartiality of mediation efforts. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have urged all parties to pursue dialogue to prevent further escalation in the volatile Horn of Africa region.