A drone strike on a displacement camp in Ethiopia’s Tigray region killed several civilians on Sunday, amid escalating conflict between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The attack occurred in Sheraro, western Tigray, a town that hosts thousands of internally displaced people from previous fighting, according to an aid worker and a witness. The strike reportedly resulted in eight deaths, including a child, and left at least six others seriously injured.

The violence intensified following the outbreak of hostilities on September 23, when clashes erupted between the TPLF and federal troops. This recent surge has revived fears of a return to the civil war that devastated the region from 2020 to 2022. Federal forces have since made advances, pushing the rebels back and capturing Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, over the weekend after TPLF leaders and fighters abandoned the city. Some basic services have begun to resume there, with public transport operational, a few shops open, and government-aligned forces maintaining a presence, though banks and petrol stations remain closed.

The Ethiopian government accuses Eritrea of supporting the TPLF rebels, raising concerns about a potential expansion of the conflict beyond Ethiopia’s borders. Analysts note that the Ethiopian military’s continued northward advance and drone strikes may be setting the stage for a confrontation with Eritrea, which shares a tense history with Ethiopia. Edward Bach of Verisk Maplecroft commented on the situation, suggesting the moves could be interpreted as preparations for a broader conflict.

Central to the tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea is the issue of access to the sea. Eritrea, which became independent from Ethiopia in 1993, controls the port of Assab, vital to landlocked Ethiopia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, reaffirmed after his party’s decisive June election victory and reappointed by parliament on Monday, underscored Ethiopia’s right to direct sea access. While he stated that Ethiopia’s aspiration to regain maritime access is critical to the country’s modernization, he emphasized that such goals would be pursued through peaceful means. At the same time, Eritrea remains wary, fearing Ethiopian designs on its port facilities.

Media access to the conflict zones remains severely restricted, and communications have been disrupted, making independent verification of reports challenging. A notable shift from previous conflicts is the Ethiopian government’s reported ability to mobilize segments of the Tigrayan population that oppose the TPLF’s rule, adding complexity to the dynamics on the ground.

The situation continues to evolve, with ongoing clashes in Tigray and heightened concerns over the potential for the conflict to escalate into a wider regional war.