A coalition of Ethiopian rebel groups launched a rapid attack on federal forces in the Afar and Amhara regions, effectively ending a fragile ceasefire and raising the risk of renewed civil war. The assaults mark a significant escalation in tensions between the Ethiopian government and insurgent factions, with the rebels declaring a “full-blown war” against the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The fighting has reignited violent confrontations that had largely been paused by a peace agreement earlier this decade, following a devastating conflict from 2020 to 2022. During that war, which mainly involved Ethiopian troops, local militias, and the Eritrean army against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), an estimated 600,000 people died from combat, famine, and disease. The recent rebel offensive, including the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement among seven groups forming the so-called Alliance for Survival, seeks to challenge Abiy’s government, which the coalition labels as “dictatorial” and “genocidal.”

The Ethiopian military reported killing more than 200 rebel fighters in the initial clashes. Analysts suggest the rebels’ strategy includes pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa, and disrupting supply routes to Djibouti, a crucial regional lifeline. Days after the alliance’s formation, the TPLF announced it had seized control of airports in the Tigray region, a symbolic and strategic gain.

Despite the peace deal brokered in Pretoria, implementation has been incomplete, and many of the grievances that triggered the original conflict remain unresolved. Eritrea, once an ally of the Ethiopian central government, has since shifted support toward Tigray, further complicating the conflict dynamics.

Experts remain skeptical about the coalition’s ability to sustain unity or successfully overthrow the government. Dr. Jalale Gettachew Birru, senior analyst at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, emphasized the ideological and historical divisions among the rebel groups, noting that some have long-standing enmities. He warned that even if the alliance were to succeed, it might not bring stability but could instead fuel prolonged widespread violence across multiple regions.

The UK government condemned the rebel attacks and called for an immediate end to hostilities. A spokesperson highlighted the potential humanitarian impact, stressing the particular risks to women and girls, and urged all parties to pursue dialogue and political solutions rather than armed conflict.