France, Belgium, and the Netherlands have reported a combined total of approximately 3,700 excess deaths linked to a severe heat wave that struck Europe between June 20 and June 28, officials said. Authorities cautioned that these figures are preliminary and may increase as investigations continue.

In France, 2,025 additional deaths were recorded during the heat event, with a notable rise among individuals over the age of 45, according to French Health Minister Stephanie Rist. Data from the country’s public health authority indicated a 91 percent increase in deaths at home from June 22 to June 28 compared with the preceding week, alongside higher mortality rates in nursing homes and healthcare facilities. The public health agency warned the final death toll could surpass initial estimates.

Belgium reported around 1,200 excess deaths across the heat wave’s duration, with nearly half—530 individuals—aged 85 and older. The Belgian Health Ministry described the mortality spike as unprecedented during such weather episodes. Among the excess deaths, 180 involved people below the age of 65.

The Netherlands experienced approximately 480 excess deaths, primarily affecting those older than 80, officials said.

Scientists have attributed the intensity of the heat wave to climate change. Experts noted that the extreme temperatures overwhelmed power grids, damaged infrastructure, and placed significant strain on healthcare systems in the affected countries.

Separately, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on July 3 a revised forecast indicating a strong El Niño event is likely to develop in the coming months. El Niño, characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically persists for nine to 12 months and is known to raise global temperatures while increasing the risk of extreme weather events worldwide.

“El Niño conditions have emerged in the Equatorial Pacific, and there is a remarkable agreement between forecast models that this will be a strong El Niño,” said Alvaro Silva, a WMO scientist.

The WMO had initially predicted in early June a moderate to strong El Niño but now has greater confidence in the development of a strong event. The organization may revise its outlook upward if data later in the summer suggest an even more intense El Niño.

Seasonal projections indicate that the phenomenon will result in drier-than-average conditions across Central America, the Caribbean, parts of North and South America, and reduced monsoon rainfall in regions of South Asia, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia.

“El Niño will also give an extra boost to global temperatures. We know that during El Niño years the global temperatures normally reach record levels,” Silva added.

The impacts of this El Niño episode are expected to persist through the end of 2026 and into 2027.