European economies at risk of coercion from China

By the Editorial Team · Friday, September 25, 2026

Research from National Taiwan University and European think tanks finds that France, Germany, and the UK are among the most vulnerable major economies to China's economic coercion due to deep trade, investment, and diplomatic ties. This challenges assumptions that only poorer nations are at risk and highlights the urgent need for Western countries to develop strategies to reduce dependence on China amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Europe’s largest economies remain significantly vulnerable to potential economic coercion by China, despite recent attempts to lessen dependence on Chinese trade and investment, according to new research using advanced modelling techniques.

An exposure index developed by National Taiwan University, in collaboration with Berlin-based think tanks Global Public Policy Institute (GPPI) and Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics), ranked France, Germany, and the United Kingdom among the seven countries worldwide most susceptible to Chinese influence. This ranking challenges the conventional view that Beijing’s greatest leverage lies primarily over poorer nations in Asia, Africa, and South America. Instead, the findings indicate that major Western democracies are also vulnerable, partly due to economic ties spanning trade, investment, military cooperation, and diplomatic relations.

George Yin, senior research fellow at NTU’s Center for China Studies, noted that the results were unexpected given Europe’s relative geographic distance from China’s military reach. “These findings contradict the expectation that exposure to Chinese power would be significantly less in Europe than in the Indo-Pacific,” he said. The study additionally confirmed that democratic countries are generally more exposed to Chinese influence than autocratic regimes.

Globally, South Korea ranked highest in potential vulnerability. Within Europe, Russia showed the greatest exposure, primarily due to a substantial increase in exports to China that grew from 1.6 percent of Russia’s GDP in 2013 to 5.4 percent in 2023. Analysts observed that Beijing leverages its central role in global supply chains as a strategic tool to protect against economic pressures imposed by the United States and other advanced economies, including recent export controls.

The research underscored China’s willingness to use economic coercion, citing incidents last year where restrictions on key components, such as magnets, disrupted production at several U.S. and EU automobile plants. These measures were reportedly in response to the U.S. raising tariffs on Chinese exports to 145 percent.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently described the European Union’s trade deficit with China—exceeding €1 billion per day—as unsustainable, highlighting ongoing tensions over economic imbalances. The index also revealed divergent trends within Europe: while the UK, Norway, Switzerland, and Sweden have decreased their relative exposure to China, other countries, including Ireland and Spain, have seen increased reliance due to growing Chinese investment.

Thorsten Benner, director of GPPI, emphasized the need for Western governments to strategize actively in managing their economic ties with Beijing. He cautioned that without deploying their own leverage and accepting associated costs, countries may find themselves subordinated to a Sino-centric economic order.

The study’s findings arrive at a time when policymakers are increasingly debating how to balance economic engagement with China against concerns over national security, economic sovereignty, and strategic autonomy.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.